No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee Preview and Prediction

Every week, I’ll be releasing an in-depth breakdown of my top game of that given week in college football. This week’s game, to no one’s surprise, is the battle between Georgia and Tennessee in Knoxville.

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Tale of the Tape

Line: UGA -3.5 O/U: 49.5

Score Projection*: Tennessee 24.46, Georgia 21.55

Win Prob*: Tenn 57.22%

Cover Prob*: Tenn 68.25%

O/U Prob*: Under 58.63%

UGA Strength (Rank)/Weakness (Rank)*: YPP Defense (11)/YPR Offense (55)

Tenn Strength (Rank)/Weakness (Rank)*: Conv Defense (3)/YPP Offense (55)

*Based on Final 2024 SNAP Ratings. 2025 SNAP Ratings will be ready entering Week 6*

It doesn’t get much better than this. On one side, you have the best coach in college football and the best program in college football since COVID, traveling to maybe the toughest stadium to play in the country, with an offense firing on all cylinders. I think both sides of this matchup are very interesting, so let’s dive into it.

Tennessee Offense vs Georgia Defense

In my opinion, this side of the ball will decide who wins this game. Through two games, it seems like Tennessee’s offense will be worlds better than I thought it would in the preseason. QB Joey Aguilar is playing with confidence, swagger and has a chance to prove all the doubters wrong (including myself). But everyone knows the legacy and aura of the Georgia defense under Kirby Smart, and this year will likely be no different. Through two games, the Bulldogs have only allowed 13 total points, though it was against inferior competition. I think this game matchup rests in the hands of Aguilar. By the end of the game, we’re going to see if he’s for real, or if he was just taking advantage of below average competition. The Vol offense is also going to have to take some shots deep if they’re going to pull off the minor upset, which means at least somewhat getting the run-game going. If this Bulldog defense is able to stifle Tennessee’s run game without stacking the box, it’s going to be a long day for Josh Heupel's offense. I don’t think Georgia will be able to completely take away the Tennessee run game, but I also don’t think the Vols will be able to run at will, I’m going to give the slight edge to the Georgia defense.

Georgia Offense vs Tennessee Defense

On the other side of the ball, the formula to determine who will win this unit matchup may be even simpler than the other one, and it’s if Gunnar Stockton can have an efficient day. Last year and to start this year, Tennessee’s strength on defense has been stopping the run and getting stops on crucial downs. This means Stockton is going to have to make winning plays through the air that we haven’t really seen him do yet. This also means that Georgia’s revamped receiving core is going to have to prove that they’re a step up from last year against Tennessee’s DB’s, who have shown some weakness so far this season. Is this the game where someone like Zachariah Branch breaks out as a Bulldog? That may have to be the case to come out of Knoxville with a win.

Prediction

I’ve been going back and forth all week on who I’m going to pick in this game. I originally picked Georgia early this week, then flipped it to Tennessee on Wednesday, but now I’m flipping it back to the Dawgs, as I just think Smart’s teams have proven their ability to win tough road games time and time again. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the Vols pulled off the minor upset, though.

Georgia 27, Tennessee 24