Ranking/Predicting the Top 10 CFB Games of Week 4

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Last Week: 7-3, 5-5 ATS

Season: 22-13, 18-17 ATS

10. Arkansas (-7.5) at Memphis

This feels like a complete trap game for Arkansas. Having to go on a weird road trip to one of the top Group of Five teams in the country, sandwiched between a tough loss against Ole Miss and hosting Notre Dame – this has upset written all over it. Now, I think the Razorbacks are a better team than Memphis, and they’re certainly more talented and should win the lines of scrimmage, so I’m picking Sam Pittman’s team to pull it out, but don’t be surprised if this game comes down to the wire.

Arkansas 28, Memphis 24

9. South Carolina at #23 Missouri (-9.5)

This matchup and prediction to me comes almost completely down to LaNorris Sellers’ health. Shane Beamer expressed optimism about Sellers’ chance of playing, but the official injury report lists him as questionable. If Sellers doesn’t play, I don’t think the Gamecocks have any shot of winning this game on the road and the Tigers easily cover. But if he does play, I’d give SC a pretty good chance at winning and predict them to cover. Without knowing the situation, I’ll go somewhere in the middle.

Missouri 31, South Carolina 20

8. Tulane at #13 Ole Miss (-13.5)

This is yet another great Power Four vs Group of Five matchup we get to witness this season. Tulane is my current pick to represent the G5 in the playoff, as they’ve already knocked off two P4 teams in convincing fashion. But Ole Miss is better than either of the power programs that the Green Wave have faced thus far, and Jon Sumrall's squad has to go on the road this time. Give me the Rebels to win somewhat convincingly behind an offense clicking on all cylinders right now, but I think Tulane does get the back-door cover.

Ole Miss 38, Tulane 27

7. Florida at #4 Miami-FL (-7.5)

If you would’ve told me in the preseason that Miami would be ranked in the top five in this matchup and Florida would be unranked, I would’ve called you crazy. But after back-to-back bad losses for the Gators, and the Hurricanes looking dominant early, all signs point to Miami winning this game easily. But the spread only being 7.5 has me hesitant to pick the Hurricanes in a blowout, and I do think Florida’s defense has been pretty good up to this point, so I’m thinking they may hang around a little more than most are expecting at least.

Miami 27, Florida 17

6. SMU at TCU (-6.5)

If I were just basing it on quality of teams, this game would probably be borderline top 10, but given the rivalry aspect and probable shootout that’s set to happen, I think this has the potential to be the most entertaining game of the weekend. Both of these offenses are worlds better than the defenses, and a lot of that has to do with the elite quarterback matchup that we’ll get to witness. I think these teams are similar caliber, but I like the Horned Frogs’ defense a little better at home, so give me Sonny Dykes’ current team over his former one.

TCU 41, SMU 34

5. Arizona State at Baylor (-2.5)

This is another game with major shootout/all-time classic potential, but featuring two Big 12 title contenders opening up conference play. QB Sawyer Robertson and Baylor’s offense has been absolutely balling to start the season, but the defense hasn’t done much to aid the success of the offense. While on the other side, Arizona State’s trying to prove they belong again after suffering an upset loss on the road to Mississippi State a couple weeks ago. At the end of the day, I think the Sun Devils are better coached and a better overall team, so I’m going to go with the minor road upset.

Arizona State 31, Baylor 28

4. #21 Michigan (-1.5) at Nebraska

What a storyline we have in this game. No matter which outcome we get, the narrative of both teams and programs coming out of this game will be a spectacle to watch. If Michigan wins, Bryce Underwood will prove that he can get it done on the road, and the Wolverines will prove they’re still playoff contenders, while Nebraska will be wondering if it’ll ever be able to get back over the hump. But if the Huskers win, the narrative will be that they’re fully back after beating a ranked team for the first time since 2016, and that Underwood and the Wolverines are frauds. I’m more confident that this will be a low-scoring slugfest than anything, and I think that favors Nebraska at home, so give me the Huskers to get the huge win.

Nebraska 20, Michigan 17

3. #22 Auburn at #11 Oklahoma (-6.5)

Another game with an incredible storyline, as former Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold makes his return to Norman in blue and orange. No matter who wins this game, someone’s going to claim some major bragging rights. Auburn has looked great so far this year, and has already passed a tough road test week one against Baylor, but the Sooners are a whole different animal, at least defensively. On the other side, the Sooners have looked like maybe the most improved team in the country from a year ago, and most of that you can attribute to new OC Ben Arbuckle and QB John Mateer. Overall, I think this will be a close game, but as the game goes on, Oklahoma proves they’re a better team and gets the victory.

Oklahoma 27, Auburn 21

2. #9 Illinois at #19 Indiana (-6.5)

I absolutely cannot wait for these final two games, as they both involve a pair of borderline playoff teams and are about as close to a toss-up game as you could get in my opinion. The winner of this game will have a huge leg up in the playoff race the rest of the way, while the loser will be working from behind the eight ball. If I had to pick who I think is purely the better team, I’d say Illinois. But with it being at the Hoosiers and some of the matchups that we’ll see in this contest, I’m going to go with Curt Cignetti’s team to pull out a nail-biter.

Indiana 24, Illinois 23

1. #17 Texas Tech at #16 Utah (-3.5)

This game is so similar to the one I just talked about, as it’s a battle between two borderline playoff teams, where the winner will have so much of an advantage going into the rest of the season than the loser. I’ve been going back and forth on who I think will win this game, because I think the Red Raiders have a higher ceiling than the Utes, but Utah is so tough to beat at home, and I trust Kyle Whittingham in big spots more than I do Joey McGuire. I could literally see this game going in any way possible, but I’m going to go with the slight favorite and what I see as the safer choice and pick Utah to win at home.

Utah 23, Texas Tech 20