Ranking/Predicting the Top 10 CFB Games of Week 5

Photo via sportskeeda.com

Last Week: 8-2, 6-4 ATS

Season: 30-15, 24-21 ATS

10. Arizona at #14 Iowa State (-6.5)

This wasn’t supposed to be this big of a game in the preseason, but with Iowa State collecting two power four wins and climbing into the top 15, while Arizona is 3-0 and looking way better than everyone thought they would, this is all of a sudden a sneaky-good and important game. I really like what Arizona’s done so far this year and I do think they’ll make a bowl game, but Iowa State is the better team and at home.

Iowa State 27, Arizona 20

9. #21 USC (-6.5) at #23 Illinois

The opposite can be said for this game, as before Illinois got slaughtered by USC last week, this was shaping up to be one of the biggest games in the Big Ten all year. I think this could go one of two ways – either Illinois uses that loss as a wake-up call and motivation to come out and play much better this week, or it’s going to demoralize them enough into basically quitting on the rest of the season. I have no idea which one it’ll be, but for the Illini sake I’ll go with the former. I still think the Trojans pull it out, though.

USC 33, Illinois 30

8. #11 Indiana (-7.5) at Iowa

This is another game that I could see going one of two ways. Either Indiana comes out like they did last week, they take the crowd on early and lay the hammer on another mid-tier Big Ten team, or they do struggle in Kinnick Stadium, maybe Iowa gets a turnover or two in the first half and the game comes down to the wire in a low-scoring slugfest. I wouldn’t be surprised either way, but I’m also predicting the former in this one.

Indiana 31, Iowa 10

7. #1 Ohio State (-9.5) at Washington

This game features the lowest a No. 1 ranked team has been favored over an unranked team since 2012, and I understand why. Something has to give here – either a monumental, unranked over No. 1 upset has to happen, or the second-longest home winning streak will be snapped in Seattle. As much as I like the Huskies this year and as good as their offense and homefield advantage has been, I think the Buckeyes are too much and pull away in the second half.

Ohio State 38, Washington 24

6. #15 Tennessee (-7.5) at Mississippi State

This is likely a battle of the two teams with the biggest difference in the SEC in terms of how good the offenses are compared to the defenses. With that being said, all signs point to this being a shootout, which I think favors Tennessee. With this being at the Bulldogs, I think they have a win and I think they’ll cover, but the Vols are the better team at the end of the day.

Tennessee 41, Mississippi State 38

5. Auburn at #9 Texas A&M (-6.5)

This is a battle of two pretty evenly matched SEC teams, even though A&M is ranked much higher. I could see this game going either way, but I think Marcel Reed will be able to lead his team to another victory and stay in the Heisman race. The home crowd will be a huge factor in the win as well.

Texas A&M 30, Auburn 23

4. #24 TCU at Arizona State (-2.5)

This is such a huge matchup in the Big 12 to determine more of the early pecking order at the top. If Arizona State wins, they’ll already have two great conference wins under their belt and look like they’re still one of the teams to beat in the Big 12. I can’t shake out of my mind how I think this game sets up to be almost exactly the same as the ASU-Baylor game last week, so that’s exactly what I’m predicting. I think the game is very back-and-forth, with ASU hitting a game-winning field goal late.

Arizona State 27, TCU 24

3. #4 LSU at #13 Ole Miss (-1.5)

This is probably my hottest take out of any of these, but I think Ole Miss convincingly beats LSU. LSU is still ranked in the AP Top 5 because of the win over Clemson in Week 1, but we can all see how that win doesn’t really live up to what it originally did, and the Tiger offense has really struggled in every game against an FBS opponent this season. On the other side, you have an Ole Miss offense that’s clicking on all cylinders right now, and already has three good wins under its belt. I don’t think it’ll be a blowout, but I think the Rebels make a statement in Oxford Saturday afternoon.

Ole Miss 27, LSU 17

2. #17 Alabama at #5 Georgia (-3.5)

I don’t know if it sounds crazy, but it’s certainly a little bit of a hot take – I think Bama does it again. I’m predicting Georgia still can’t get over the Alabama regular-season hump despite so many factors being in its favor. I believe Alabama is a different team than what we saw from them in Week 1 against Florida State. They’ve learned from their mistakes, and they’re ready to go make a statement win at the Dawgs on Saturday night.

Alabama 21, Georgia 20

1. #6 Oregon at #3 Penn State (-2.5)

This is a close one with the Bama-UGA game, but I’m putting this one as the game of the week. I think these two teams combined are slightly better than the two SEC teams, and the whiteout gives it some bonus points as well. In terms of who I think’s going to win the game, all signs point to it being Penn State, my gut points to it being Penn State and the SNAP Model says Penn State is going to win this. But can they actually win the big game? That question makes me hesitant to actually follow through to pick the Nittany Lions, but I think this is the spot they do it in. If they do end up losing this game though, I’m never picking PSU to win another huge game until proven otherwise.

Penn State 24, Oregon 21