Ranking/Predicting the Top 10 College Football Games of Week 6
- Benji Genise
- Oct 3, 2025
- 5 min read
Last Week: 8-2, 7-3 ATS
Season: 38-17, 31-24 ATS
10. Duke (-3.5) at California
This is a matchup of two sleeper ACC teams in a late-night, Saturday matchup. Duke is coming off a 38-3 dismantling against a solid Syracuse team, and the offense has looked great the last couple weeks. But outside of the inexplicable 34-0 loss to San Diego State in Week 4, Cal has looked good this year too, especially defensively. I think Duke’s the better team, but them having to travel west to face a stingy defense makes me hesitant to pick them
California 24, Duke 23
9. Boise State at #21 Notre Dame (-19.5)
If this game were last year, it may be the game of the week. But both teams seem to have regressed from a year ago – especially the Broncos. If you’re a subscriber, you know that Notre Dame -19.5 is one of the SNAP Model’s best bets of the week, and I’m not going to stray from that; I think the Irish win in a high-scoring bloodbath.
Notre Dame 48, Boise State 24
8. Washington (-5.5) at Maryland
This is probably the game I had the toughest time picking this week, and I keep going back and forth on who I think’s going to win the most underrated game of the week. Similar to the Duke-California game, I think Washington’s the better team, but the travel factor could be a factor here, and I could see Maryland being undervalued by most people across the country. But travelling east typically doesn’t affect the road team as much as going west, and I think the Huskies bounce back from the home loss to Ohio State.
Washington 27, Maryland 24
7. #14 Iowa State at Cincinnati (-1.5)
All signs point to this being a trap game for my hometown Cyclones – smart money should always be on the favored unranked team over the ranked team. Combine that with the fact the Cyclones lost their two all-Big 12 corners in back-to-back weeks, and the easy choice to win this game should be the Bearcats. But something tells me the Cyclones will get this done. Maybe I’m biased, but Matt Campbell’s team has had success against Cincy the last two years, and the two teams run similar schemes, so it’ll truly be down to who’s the better team, and I think that’s ISU.
Iowa State 31, Cincinnati 27
6. #24 Virginia at Louisville (-7.5)
This is a battle to see who moves to the top of the “tier two” ACC pecking order. You figure Miami, Florida State and Georgia Tech have separated themselves in tier one right now, but I think these two are the next in line. Virginia had a great win over FSU last week and has a dynamic offense, but now they have to go on the road and face an underrated Louisville team in my opinion, where most will probably be watching them for the first time this season. I think the Cavaliers’ offense gets exposed by Miller Moss, and the Cards make a statement in a shootout victory.
Louisville 37, Virginia 30
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5. Mississippi State at #6 Texas A&M (-14.5)
Mississippi State +14.5 is my lock of the week, as the sportsbooks are still severely undervaluing the Bulldogs from their 2-10 record a season ago, but this team has vastly improved, and is 5-0 against the spread so far this year. I still think A&M is the slightly better team though, especially defensively, and in theory Marcel Reed should be the better quarterback here. However, it will be closer than people think; the SNAP Model projects a 24-22 A&M win. I don't think it'll be that close, but I do have the Bulldogs easily covering the spread.
Texas A&M 31, Mississippi State 24
4. #11 Texas Tech (-11.5) at Houston
This is one of the best Big 12 games of the season up to this point, as you have two 4-0 teams going at it. This is a battle of one of my most underrated teams in the country currently in Texas Tech, going up against my most underrated team in the nation heading into the season in Houston. While I think Houston’s great and Willie Fritz is an elite coach, they don’t have the talent to keep up with the Red Raiders here, who I think have a chance to make another statement and solidify themselves as the clear Big 12 frontrunner.
Texas Tech 28, Houston 16
3. #8 Texas (-6.5) at Florida
Despite Florida’s struggles, I’d be very worried about this potential trap game if I were a Longhorn fan. Travelling to the Swamp is no easy task, and the Gator defense has still been great this year – probably better than the Texas offense has. On the other side though, the Longhorn defense, on paper, should feast against DJ Lagway and the struggling Florida offense. The stat of the game will be Florida’s 3rd/4th down conversion rate, as they currently rank 120th in adjusted rate, while Texas ranks 4th in adjusted rate allowed, according to the SNAP Model.
Texas 21, Florida 13
Can Vandy pull it off two years in a row? I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but no, they can’t. Clark Lea’s team has been a great story this year and they’re definitely a good, 7-8 win type team, but they’re not going to win on Saturday. After taking one on the chin in Week 1, Bama has learned from it and come back stronger, as we saw in the win against Georgia. On top of that, the Commodores will have the Tide’s full attention after what happened last year, and you can bet that Alabama’s locker room wants to beat them by as much as possible as revenge, and Vandy won’t be able to stop Jam Miller and the Tide rushing attack. Give me Alabama at home by a significant margin.
Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 17
What a game this could’ve set up to be. If Florida State hung on to beat Virginia last week, this would’ve been AT LEAST a top 10 matchup. This is still going to be an incredible matchup, and it’s still the first time these rivals have faced off as ranked teams since 2016, but it doesn’t quite have the juice it would have if the Noles were undefeated. The Doak will still be rocking though, and I actually think FSU will play better in this game because of its loss. Give me the Noles to not only cover, but win outright, due to the hostile crowd and Miami’s lack of a run game.
Florida State 27, Miami 24
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