Ranking/Predicting the Top 10 Games of Week 10
- Benji Genise
- Oct 31, 2025
- 5 min read
Last Week: 6-4, 3-7 ATS
Season: 63-32, 51-44 ATS
*Rankings are based on my own top 25*
10. Arizona State at Iowa State (-7.5)
This might be the battle of the two most disappointing teams in the Big 12 this year, but you can chalk up injuries as a big part of that for both squads. Iowa State lost its top two corners, a starting safety, starting running back and both scholarship kickers on its roster within a span of a week before its first two losses of the season, while Arizona State has been missing its two best players in QB Sam Leavitt and WR Jordyn Tyson at times this year and could be the blame for its two conference losses. The Cyclones are a little healthier now, but the Sun Devils will still likely be without Leavitt and Tyson, and they aren’t close to the same team without them.
Iowa State 34, Arizona State 17
9. Penn State at #1 Ohio State (-20.5)
Similar to the last game, this matchup has lost all its merit that everyone thought it’d have at the start of the season. There was a span of a couple weeks where these were the top two teams in the AP Poll, but a lot can change in just a short month. Ohio State is still holding its own at the top of college football, but the Nittany Lions have completely fallen off the face of the planet, and now sit without a head coach or conference victory. Penn State still has the talent to possibly make this an interesting game, but the question is whether they’re still bought in or not, and the Buckeyes have looked like an absolute machine so far this season.
Ohio State 31, Penn State 7
8. #5 Georgia (-7.5) vs Florida
On the surface, it seems like Georgia should be more than just a 7.5 point favorite, but factoring in the rivalry, dead-cap bounce, neutral site and the Bulldogs’ struggles to pull away from teams, the line’s pretty accurate to me. It’ll be interesting to see how the Gators perform in the first game of the post-Billy Napier era. This is also a game that features weakness on weakness when it comes to the four factors (check my pinned article on the SNAP Model if you’re confused), as Georgia’s weakness is 3rd/4th down conversion defense, while Florida’s weakness is converting third and fourth downs. I think Florida plays a good game, but the Bulldogs win another one with their toughness.
Georgia 23, Florida 20
7. #12 Texas Tech (-7.5) at Kansas State
I’m calling it right now – Kansas State will win this game. You may be wondering, isn’t that the same K-State team who lost to Army and almost lost to an FCS team? Yes and no. It’s still technically the same team, but the Wildcats are playing much better ball right now than they were at the beginning of the season, and coming off a 25-point victory over their rival as an underdog. On the other side, the pressure is all on Texas Tech, as their backs are against the wall to make the Big 12 title game and possibly even the playoff as an at-large, and they’re in a look ahead spot with BYU coming to Lubbock next week as well.
Kansas State 30, Texas Tech 24
6. #10 Miami (-12.5) at SMU
SMU losing last week took away a lot of the luster behind this game, but the Mustangs still have an outside shot to make the ACC title game if they can pull off the upset. On the other side, Miami bounced back well after its loss by trouncing Stanford by 35 last week. I think the loss was a good wake-up call for the Hurricanes, and they’ll play better down the stretch because of it. Don’t be shocked if the Mustangs pull off the upset, though.
Miami 31, SMU 20
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5. #22 USC (-6.5) at Nebraska
This is basically a pick-your-poison game, but between two very good teams. You’re forced to either pick USC to win a road game, where they have been abysmal these past two years since joining the Big Ten, or you have to pick Nebraska to win a big game, where they have been abysmal for the past decade or so. This game feels very similar to the USC-Illinois game earlier this year, when the Illini won on a walk-off field goal at home, but I think the Trojans find a way to get it done this time, and the Huskers still can’t find a way to get over the hump.
USC 34, Nebraska 31
4. Navy at North Texas (-6.5)
With Tulane losing last night, this game just got that much bigger in the race for the AAC title and Group of Five playoff spot. The winner of this game will likely be sharing the driver's seat with Memphis and South Florida as the runaway favorites for both, but the loser will have little to no shot of recovering. Navy’s been a great story this year, but they’ve had one of the easiest schedules in America up to this point, and I think the Mean Green put on a show at home.
North Texas 45, Navy 27
This may be the matchup I’m personally most intrigued to see this week, as you have two teams that have been completely one-sided this year. Oklahoma has the 4th best defense but the 50th best offense in America, while Tennessee has the 9th best offense but 96th best defense in the country, according to the SNAP Model. I believe these teams are nearly dead-even on a neutral field, with Oklahoma possibly being slightly better. But this is at Tennessee, at night, in a blackout, I have a hard time seeing the Vols lose this one.
Tennessee 27, Oklahoma 24
Who would’ve thought before the season started that this would be monumentally more important in the Big 12 title race than Arizona State-Iowa State? I don’t think anyone did, but here we are. Cincinnati is still sitting at a perfect 5-0 in conference play, while Utah is 3-2, but its two losses were against the two highest ranked teams in the conference. These may be the two most underrated teams in the country at this point in my opinion, but I think the Utes make a statement here. The SNAP Model and all other analytics love Kyle Whittingham’s squad, and I think they’ll hand the Bearcats their first conference loss of the season.
Utah 31, Cincinnati 27
This is another “who would’ve thought at the beginning of the season” game, where it’s crazy to think that Vandy is the higher ranked team in this matchup. Texas is still the slight favorite, though, and some people may be confused by that. While the Commodores might be the better team, the Longhorns play much better at home than on the road. Along with that, Texas can counter Vandy’s strengths with strengths of their own, which includes stopping the run and getting Clark Lea’s team out of its comfort zone. I also think Texas will be able to gash Vandy in the run game enough to come out with the crucial victory for the Longhorns SEC title and playoff chances.
Texas 24, Vanderbilt 20
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