Ranking/Predicting the Top 10 Games of Week 12

Last Week: 6-4, 7-3 ATS

Season: 69-36, 58-47 ATS

*Rankings are based on my own top 25*

10. Arizona at #25 Cincinnati (-6.5)

Despite the blowout loss to Utah the last time we saw Cincinnati play, the Bearcats still control their own destiny to the Big 12 championship game and the College Football Playoff. A win against Arizona here would set up a huge matchup and de-facto Big 12 championship play-in game against BYU next week. Arizona is a sneaky-good 6-3 team this year though, and its defense has given some good teams fits at times. The Noon ET kick at home heavily favors the Bearcats at home, however, so I believe they’ll find a way to get it done.

Cincinnati 31, Arizona 24

9. Memphis at East Carolina (-2.5)

Not a lot of people realize that East Carolina is right in the thick of the AAC title race with just one conference loss. They don’t get the attention that teams like USF, Tulane or Memphis do because the likelihood of reaching the playoff is very slim, but they have about as good of a chance as any to make the conference championship game, and that starts this weekend with Memphis. For the Tigers, this is a must-win game to keep any hope of a playoff berth alive with two conference losses already. ECU is a 2.5 point home favorite, and I think they win and cover that.

East Carolina 30, Memphis 27

8. TCU at #9 BYU (-4.5)

BYU -4.5 is one of the SNAP Model’s best bets of the week, despite the pounding BYU took from Texas Tech last week. The model is not high on TCU’s defense, as it has struggled to get off the field on crucial downs a lot of the season, and the Cougars are efficient in nearly every category. Pair that with the game being at night in Provo, I think BYU bounces back nicely with a convincing victory.

BYU 34, TCU 23

7. Clemson at #20 Louisville (-3.5)

This game was looked at in the preseason as a possible trap game for Clemson heading down the stretch. Now, it’s flipped to a trap game for Louisville, as they try and keep their ACC title and playoff hopes alive at two losses. I do think losing to Cal last week helped the Cards’ chances in this game alone, as their backs are now against the wall and they should be on high-alert. Clemson certainly hasn’t performed nearly as well as they’d hoped entering the season, but they also have the talent to beat anyone in the ACC on any given night. I think the Tigers keep it close, but Jeff Brohm’s team finds a way at the end of the game.

Louisville 27, Clemson 21

6. #21 South Florida (-10.5) at Navy

This game is another de-facto playoff elimination game for both teams, as they each have one conference loss in the conference that will likely represent the group of five in the playoff. Navy started off the year 7-0, but have lost by double-digits in its last two games against by far the top two teams they’ve played all season in North Texas and Notre Dame. On the other side, South Florida is the best group of five team in my opinion, despite the loss to Memphis, and they come in as a double-digit favorite. Even with the big spread, I’m going with a USF win and cover, as I think they can take advantage of a lot of the Midshipmen’s defensive issues.

South Florida 38, Navy 24

Like this content? Subscribe here!

5. #19 Virginia at Duke (-6.5)

Chandler Morris’ health status is the biggest storyline entering this game, and I think whether he plays or not will determine who ends up winning this matchup. Virginia hasn’t lost a conference game that Morris has played the entirety of, and they’ve proven many times this year that they can find ways to win close games better than just about anyone. But after he got knocked out of the game on Saturday against Wake Forest, the offense looked borderline incompetent, and Duke is a good enough team to make them pay for that. From what I can find, it seems he’s more likely than not to be out this week, and with that info, I’m going with the Blue Devils

Duke 28, Virginia 24

4. Iowa at #18 USC (-6.5)

This is honestly the game I’m most intrigued about this Saturday, as you have a program known for its elite defense but lack of offense in Iowa going up against a program known for its elite offense but lack of defense in USC. To be fair, both teams are a little better than usual on the side of the ball they struggle on, but it’s still true to some extent. Interestingly enough, USC has not lost a home game in regulation since joining the Big Ten (its one home loss was in OT against Penn State last season). I think these teams are almost dead-even on a neutral field, but give me the Trojans at home with the Hawkeyes having to travel two time zones west.

USC 28, Iowa 20

3. #10 Notre Dame (-11.5) at #22 Pittsburgh

College Gameday is set to make an appearance in Pittsburgh for this one, and hopefully that means the Panther fans will show up to the game better than they do most games, because this team deserves it and will likely need it in this game to stand any chance. Notre Dame is red-hot ever since dropping its first two games of the season, and this is its last realistic shot of losing a game before the playoff. This has all the makings of being a blowout in my opinion. Mason Heintschel and the Pitt receivers are going to have to have the game of his life to give the Panthers a chance, because Notre Dame’s run defense against Pitt’s run game is a complete mismatch in favor of the Irish.

Notre Dame 34, Pittsburgh 14

2. #12 Oklahoma at #4 Alabama (-6.5)

This is the first of two elite SEC matchups this weekend, and it’s a must-win for Oklahoma. Alabama will be motivated from the beating they took in Norman last year that ultimately cost them a playoff spot, and this time they’ll be at home, where they haven’t lost under Kalen DeBoer. I do think the Sooners are a little underrated in terms of the way they get talked about by the national media, but I have a very hard time seeing them win in Tuscaloosa, especially with their passing struggles as of late.

Alabama 24, Oklahoma 20

1. #11 Texas at #5 Georgia (-6.5)

I see this game going very similarly to the SEC title game between these teams last season, where Texas jumps out to an early lead, but Georgia fights back and wins a close one with its toughness. That seems to be the recipe for this Kirby Smart team in about every game this year anyways. The Longhorns do have a great run defense and that could give them a shot if Gunnar Stockton can’t make the throws he needs to make. Arch Manning would have to make some throws as well though, and he has not fared well on the road this season. I just trust the Dawgs a little more in these types of situations

Georgia 21, Texas 19