Ranking/Predicting the Top 10 Games of Week 7

Last Week: 5-5, 4-6 ATS Season: 43-22, 35-30 ATS *Rankings are based on my own top 25*

10. #18 BYU (-1.5) at Arizona

This has all the makings of being another classic, low-scoring game in the Big 12, where a ranked team goes on the road to a good unranked team in a close spread. BYU’s defense has been elite all year, but the offense finally got things going against West Virginia last week. I think Arizona's crowd and unconventional defense will keep them in this game, but they’ll have to find more of a passing attack to pull out the victory.

BYU 20, Arizona 17

9. Florida at #4 Texas A&M (-7.5)

Texas A&M proved me wrong last week and covered the 14.5 points when I had Mississippi State +14.5 as my best bet of the week. I really liked what I saw from the Aggies in that game, and am starting to believe they’re true national title contenders. On paper, they should win this game against Florida relatively easily, but that’s what Texas should’ve done against the Gators last week too. The game’s in Aggieland which helps, but I think Florida barely covers in the A&M win.

Texas A&M 28, Florida 21

8. #19 South Florida (-1.5) at North Texas

This is the first matchup of the season between two of the five teams in the AAC that all have a shot to earn the G5 playoff spot. I love that this is on a Friday night and will get more national exposure, as both these teams have earned the right to do so, and Denton should be rocking. Both these teams are much better offensively than defensively, so expect a lot of points in this one. I think North Texas has been a great story so far this year and absolutely has a chance to win this game, but USF is the best non-power team in the country in my opinion, and I think Byrum Brown and the Bulls prove me right, taking advantage of UNT’s inability to get off the field on 3rd and 4th downs.

South Florida 38, North Texas 35

7. #2 Ohio State (-14.5) at Illinois

If you haven’t watched much of Ohio State yet this year, you need to watch this game, specifically the Buckeye defense. This unit that Matt Patricia runs is an absolute cheat code, and hasn’t allowed opponents to score in double-digits in any game up to this point in the year. I think Illinois’ offense is pretty good, but this will be another game where the Buckeyes flex how elite they are and suffocate the Illini in a dominant win.

Ohio State 38, Illinois 13

6. #16 Michigan at USC (-2.5)

This is one of the more intriguing games of the season, and will really separate these teams in the Big Ten pecking order. The winner will still be in the thick of the Big Ten title and playoff races, while the loser will have its back against the wall the rest of the way. The SNAP Model is much higher on Michigan than I am at the moment, rating them as a top three team and offense in the country. While I think the Wolverines are pretty good, I disagree with the model on quite how good they are. On the other side, the model is a little low on USC compared to me, but it’s a fact that the Trojans are once again struggling to get stops defensively. I think Michigan’s a better team and are statistically the best rushing team in the nation to this point, but traveling west is a real factor, so I’m going to go with Lincoln Riley’s team for that reason.

USC 34, Michigan 31

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5. #10 Georgia (-3.5) at Auburn

Yet another game where a superior team is going on the road to face a pretty good team in a hostile environment. For Auburn to have a chance in this game, Jackson Arnold is going to have to find a way to make some plays with his arm, which he hasn’t shown much of this year. I could see it going either way, but I trust Georgia more right now, considering they’ve already gone on the road and beat Tennessee in a similar spot.

Georgia 23, Auburn 20

4. #21 Arizona State at #20 Utah (-5.5)

It’s hard to believe that Utah still has not won a home Big 12 conference game, but that’s the reality heading into this matchup. The Utes are coming off their worst year in recent memory in their first year in the conference, and faced possibly a top five team in their first conference home game of this season. Arizona State has already shown vulnerability on the road, losing at Mississippi State in Week 2. While the Sun Devils are getting better every week, I think this is a statement game for Utah to announce they’re still here on a national scale, release their frustrations and beat the Sun Devils convincingly.

Utah 27, Arizona State 17

3. #6 Oklahoma vs Texas (-2.5)

If someone would’ve told you in the preseason that Oklahoma would be in the top six while Texas would be unranked for this matchup, how would you have reacted? I would’ve thought the person was insane. But here we are, and yet…Texas is the favorite in this game. Considering John Mateer’s questionable health and Texas still has an elite defense, I’m not too surprised. But if Mateer plays, I’m absolutely taking the points and Oklahoma to win. Really my prediction is based on his health – my model has OU winning by four if he plays, but Vegas has Texas as a 2.5 point favorite, probably leaning towards him not playing. I’ve learned to trust Vegas on these things, so I’ll go Texas in the lowest scoring Red River we’ve seen in a while.

Texas 17, Oklahoma 13

2. #8 Alabama (-2.5) at #14 Missouri

These have been two of the more elite teams in the country to this point, if you just look at the raw numbers. The problem is Missouri has yet to play a ranked team. The matchup to watch in this one will be how Ty Simpson fares against Mizzou’s pass defense. Simpson has maybe been the best QB in the country since the Tide’s Week 1 loss to Florida State, but the Tigers may have the best pass defense in America. Missouri is great and I think they’re a bonafide top 25 team, but Alabama is on another level right now.

Alabama 28, Missouri 21

1. #9 Indiana at #3 Oregon (-7.5)

I’m conflicted in this one, as everything in me is saying Oregon’s going to run away with this game, but the SNAP Model has Indiana +7.5 as a best bet this week and even has them winning outright. It’s going to be amazing to see how Fernando Mendoza handles the Oregon crowd, and how Dante Moore handles Curt Cignetti’s defense on the other side of it. I’m torn on who to pick with this one, but I’ll go in between my gut and my model, and pick Oregon to win a close one.

Oregon 27, Indiana 24