Ranking/Predicting the Top 10 Games of Week 8
- Benji Genise
- Oct 16
- 5 min read
Last Week: 9-1, 7-3 ATS Season: 52-23, 42-33 ATS *Rankings are based on my own top 25*
10. UNLV at Boise State (-10.5)
This will be the biggest Mountain West game of the regular season and one of the biggest in determining the group of five playoff spot. Boise has already suffered a couple losses at the hands of good teams, while UNLV has escaped by the skin of its teeth multiple times while remaining undefeated thus far. The winner will pick up its first signature victory of the season, while the loser will be all but eliminated from the playoff race. Boise needs to find a way to get the offense going against good competition, as they’ve only scored seven points in each of its losses. But I think the Broncos find a way to do so and UNLV living on the edge against below-average teams finally catches up to them.
Boise State 38, UNLV 27
9. Louisville at #2 Miami (-13.5)
This is one of the more underrated matchups of the week that we get to see on a Friday night, as an underrated Louisville team heads on the road to face a dominant Miami team. The Hurricanes have been nothing but dominant so far this season, but they could be put to the test against Jeff Brohm’s squad if they aren’t careful. Louisville’s going to have to find a way to move the ball consistently if they’re going to have any chance in this game, though; and Miami has shown no real signs of weakness defensively.
Miami 27, Louisville 17
8. #25 Washington at Michigan (-5.5)
I’m very intrigued to see this matchup, as it’s not only a game between two teams jockeying for position towards the top-middle of the Big Ten, but it’s also a de facto playoff elimination game. The winner will still have an outside shot of cracking the final 12, but the loser – whether it’d be a three-loss Michigan or two-loss Washington lacking a good win up to this point – will have its playoff aspirations officially down the drain. The Wolverines did not show much fight at USC last weekend, but I think they bounce back well and get the win at home in more of a shootout than they’re used to.
Michigan 34, Washington 24
7. #5 Texas Tech (-10.5) at Arizona State
This game has really lost a lot of the preseason juice it had looking ahead. Between Sam Leavitt’s questionable health, Arizona State being worse than expected in general and Texas Tech looking a level above everyone else in the Big 12, it’s certainly not as hyped up as it was originally. I still think if Leavitt plays, the Sun Devils have a punchers chance of beating the Red Raiders at home, but I’d still pick Joey McGuire’s squad to win and cover. And this may be stating the obvious, but if Leavitt is out again, ASU has no chance of keeping this within single-digits. For my prediction’s sake, I’m going to go with a score in the middle of the two possibilities.
Texas Tech 31, Arizona State 13
6. #12 Georgia Tech at Duke (-1.5)
We’re going to find out a lot about Georgia Tech after this game on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets are still undefeated and riding high, but Duke may be the best ACC team left on their schedule. The Blue Devils started the season slow with non-conference losses to Illinois and Tulane, but have turned it on, winning their first three ACC games. There’s no doubt in my mind that Georgia Tech is the better team, but with this being a tricky spot on the road, I’m going to pick the Blue Devils to pull off the upset.
Duke 35, Georgia Tech 33
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This is the first game of an elite SEC tripleheader on ABC Saturday, with all being ranked versus ranked matchups. I’m completely torn on who I think is going to win this game. I think LSU is the slightly better team and has a good enough defense to beat anyone in America, but Vandy is at home and has an offense I trust more. The SNAP Model is not very high on either of these teams, it’s especially lower on the Commodores. I want to pick Vandy really badly, but when I’m split on the game, I usually defer to the model, who slightly leans LSU.
LSU 24, Vanderbilt 22
What an important game this is for both programs. Notre Dame needs to win this to stay alive in the playoff hunt after dropping its first two games of the season, while USC needs this to stay in the playoff hunt and prove they can win a road game against a great team. Add the rivalry factor to it, and this game has all the makings of an all-time classic. With that being said, I think the Irish win this running away. This reminds me a lot of the 2023 game between these teams, where Notre Dame won by nearly 30 points as the lower ranked team. Obviously, Notre Dame’s the higher ranked team in this scenario, but I think it could be a similar result. I just don’t trust Lincoln Riley USC teams to win big games on the road.
Notre Dame 41, USC 20
Similar to the game I just talked about, I think this rivalry game between two ranked teams has all the makings of a blowout win by the home team. Alabama -9.5 is the second best bet of the week, according to the SNAP Model, and I think the Tide are maybe the best team in the country since Week 1. Tennessee has the offense to stay in this thing, but I really don’t see them winning in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama 45, Tennessee 24
This is the second game of the SEC tripleheader, and it features two of my top 10 teams and two of the AP Poll’s top 10 teams. Lane Kiffin’s team has looked great this season outside of the egg they laid against Washington State last week, but this will be by far the toughest test of the season for them. On the other side, you have a Georgia team who’s already dropped a game this season and hasn’t looked as dominant as some of the earlier 2020s Georgia teams. If the Rebels didn’t play horrible last week, I’d consider picking them to win this game outright, but I just don’t know if Kirby Smart and the experience Dawgs will let that happen.
Georgia 24, Ole Miss 20
I cannot wait for this game. As a Big 12 enthusiast, this is one of the games I’ll be most looking forward to watching all year. The only loss either of these teams has is Utah’s loss to Texas Tech, where the game was much closer than the score indicated. I think the Utes are hands down the better and more talented team, but BYU just seems to find a way to win every single week. One thing’s for certain – the game will come down to the wire; I’d be shocked if it didn’t. The big advantage Utah has if this is a close game, is that they’re currently the best team in America on converting third and fourth downs. For that reason, I’m going to lean Utah to win, but I’ll go with the Cougars to cover.
Utah 23, BYU 21
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