SNAP Ratings: Teams That Were Better/Worse Than Their Record Showed in 2024

Now that my SNAP Model has been made public, we can start diving deep into interesting storylines from the 2024 final ratings heading into this season. In this blog, we’re going to be looking at teams that were better and worse than their regular season record showed in 2024, by looking at expected wins if a team were to play its schedule again versus actual wins. For example, If a team had a 50 percent chance of winning each of its 2024 games, its projected wins would be six out of 12 total games. But if they finished with five wins in reality, they were actually better than their record showed. This model can be used to predict if a team will likely be better or worse than people expect in the 2025 season. But without further ado, let’s look at the teams that stood out the most on either side of the spectrum.

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UCF Knights - Better than record

Actual Wins: 4

Expected Wins: 6.62

UCF parted ways with head coach Gus Malzahn after a disappointing 2024, but the team may not have been as bad as most thought. Blowout wins over Arizona and a good C-USA team in Sam Houston combined with close losses to Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa State and Arizona State made for the Knights’ power rating to finish towards the middle of the Big 12, despite the 4-8 record.

Duke Blue Devils - Worse than record

Actual Wins: 9

Expected Wins: 6.57

Duke had a successful season in year one with Manny Diaz at the helm, but going 6-1 in one score games with a blowout loss to Miami may point to a bit of regression in year two.

Auburn Tigers - Better than record

Actual Wins: 5

Expected Wins: 7.2

Auburn may have taken a slight step forward in head coach Hugh Freeze’s second year, despite the 5-7 record. The Tigers had maybe the most untimely turnover luck in college football in 2024, and likely lost close games against Oklahoma and Missouri because of it. The Tigers also upset Texas A&M late in the season and kept it respectable against Alabama in the Iron Bowl.

BYU Cougars - Worse than record

Actual Wins: 10

Expected Wins: 7.83

BYU came out of nowhere to become one of the most surprising teams in the country in 2024. But opposite of Auburn, the Cougars got a lot of turnover luck to go their way en route to four one-score wins and didn’t really have many dominating victories over power conference teams during the regular season.

Virginia Tech Hokies - Better than record

Actual Wins: 6

Expected Wins: 8.2

Virginia Tech may be my most underrated team in the country heading into the season. Despite being plagued by injuries all year, the Hokies still managed to only lose one game by more than a single possession in the regular season – and that was by 10 to eventual ACC champion Clemson. Brent Pry’s squad finished 19th in the SNAP Ratings despite a 6-6 record, and they return almost everyone from last year’s team.

Oregon Ducks - Worse than record

Actual Wins: 12

Expected Wins: 9.66

Oregon was the only team in college football last season to finish the regular season undefeated at 12-0. But with a sluggish start to the season, close win over a below-average Wisconsin team and College Football Playoff blowout loss to Ohio State, the Ducks didn’t even finish top 10 in the final SNAP Ratings.

Kansas Jayhawks - Better than record

Actual Wins: 5

Expected Wins: 6.72

After starting the season 1-5 with numerous one-score losses, Kansas turned into a top 10 team in the country for about a month, beating Big 12 contenders Iowa State, BYU and Colorado in three consecutive weeks. Despite this, the Jayhawks still finished 5-7 and failed to make a bowl in 2024. Another reason Lance Leipold’s squad was better than their record was because they had to face each of the top six teams in the conference.

LSU Tigers - Worse than record

Actual Wins: 8

Expected Wins: 6.32

LSU is the only SEC team whose expected wins were significantly lower than its actual wins. The Tigers had good, close wins over South Carolina and Ole Miss, but their four losses consisted of an average USC team and double-digit defeats to Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida.

Utah Utes - Better than record

Actual Wins: 5

Expected Wins: 6.6

Utah was one of the most disappointing teams of the 2024 season, finishing second-to-last in the Big 12 as the preseason favorite. But a top-25 rated defense kept them in games throughout the season, the offense just failed to show up when it mattered time and time again, losing five one-possession games in a six game stretch. The Utes have re-loaded this year on offense though and are poised for a bounce-back season.

Syracuse Orange - Worse than record

Actual Wins: 9

Expected Wins: 6.97

Syracuse was one of the darlings of college football in 2024 in head coach Fran Brown’s first season that included an upset win over Miami to close the regular season. But in terms of predictability, the Orange were not nearly as good as their record indicated. Brown’s team won seven of its nine games by one possession, and its three losses consisted of a blowout loss to Pitt and upset losses to Stanford and Boston College.

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