2025 Big Ten Football Predictions

Next up on our 2025 power conference predictions, we have the Big Ten! The last two national champions have come from the Big Ten, as rivals Michigan and Ohio State each claimed titles in 2023 and 2024, respectively. But can the conference make it a third straight year? And if so, will it be the Wolverines or Buckeyes again, or can teams like Penn State or defending Big Ten champion Oregon surge and win a national championship? Let’s dive into what I think will happen in 2025.

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Illinois Fighting Illini

Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2)

Ceiling/Floor: 11-1/7-5

Projected Wins: Western Illinois, Duke, Western Michigan, Indiana, USC, Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern

Projected Losses: Ohio State, Washington

Most Intriguing Game: at Washington (Week 9)

Illinois is coming off a strong 2024 season where they finished 10-3 after a 5-7 season in 2023, and I believe they’ll be even better in 2025. With quarterback Luke Altmeyer and all five starters on the offensive line returning, and a defense that should be towards the top of the conference again, I have Bret Bielema’s squad as a borderline top 10 team in the country heading into the season. But they have a handful of toss-up games that could keep them from contending for a playoff spot if the ball doesn’t bounce the right way, including trips to Duke, Indiana and Washington, along with a date with USC at home.

Indiana Hoosiers

Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4)

Ceiling/Floor: 9-3/6-6

Projected Wins: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue

Projected Losses: Illinois, Iowa, Oregon, Penn State

Most Intriguing Game: Illinois (Week 4)

Indiana is coming off a magical 2024 season in head coach Curt Cignetti’s first season, where they went 11-1 and made the inaugural 12-team playoff. But after losing most of its starters from a year ago, can they replicate their success with this year’s squad with a bunch of new faces from the transfer portal? Cignetti is an elite culture builder, and he proved he can do it with a bunch of transfers last year, but doing it with the portal method comes with a risk of having a 2024 Florida State type season, where it all falls apart because there’s no foundation. While I don’t think it’ll fall off to that degree, I do think there will be a slight decline, and a tougher schedule won’t help matters.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/6-6

Projected Wins: Albany, UMass, Rutgers, Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan State

Projected Losses: Iowa State, Oregon, USC, Nebraska

Most Intriguing Game: Indiana (Week 5)

This may be the most unique Iowa team we’ve seen in quite some time. We’re used to making fun of Iowa football for managing to squeak out 8 to 10 wins every season despite having an abysmal offense, but the tide may be starting to turn on both sides of the ball. The Iowa offense took a step in the right direction in year one under offensive coordinator Tim Lester. Losing All-American running back Kaleb Johnson will hurt, but with the strides they took last year and bringing in a playmaker at quarterback in South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski, I think the Hawkeye offense will take another step forward in 2025. However, while the offense progressed last year, the always-stout defense under Phil Parker took a small step back to what Hawkeye fans are used to, and I think another slight regression may be coming again this year after losing some pieces.

Maryland Terrapins

Projected Record: 4-8 (1-8)

Ceiling/Floor: 7-5/3-9

Projected Wins: Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, Towson, Nebraska

Projected Losses: Wisconsin, Washington, UCLA, Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

Most Intriguing Game: Nebraska (Week 7)

Maryland is coming off maybe its worst season in the Mike Locksley era, going 4-8 and only winning one conference game. Unfortunately for the Terrapins, all signs point to more struggles in 2025. Almost everyone they added in the offseason are inexperienced and/or unproven, but a soft schedule that is void of Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon could help the Terps get back to bowl eligibility if they can win some close games.

Michigan Wolverines

Projected Record: 9-3 (7-2)

Ceiling/Floor: 11-1/7-5

Projected Wins: New Mexico, Central Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland, Ohio State

Projected Losses: Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC

Most Intriguing Game: Ohio State (Week 14)

Michigan will be one of the more interesting teams to watch in 2025. After putting together one of the best seasons of all time, going 15-0 and winning a national title in 2023, the Wolverines had an underwhelming 2024 campaign, going just 8-5 in year one under head coach Sherrone Moore. But with five-star true-freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood likely taking over the starting job in 2025 and key portal additions, there’s a lot of buzz around what this Michigan team could do in the fall. One thing’s for certain – I’ll be picking them over Ohio State until the Buckeyes can prove me otherwise.

Michigan State Spartans

Projected Record: 5-7 (2-7)

Ceiling/Floor: 8-4/3-9

Projected Wins: Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State, UCLA, Maryland

Projected Losses: USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State, Iowa

Most Intriguing Game: Michigan (Week 9)

After a rough first year under head coach Jonathan Smith, I do believe the Spartans will be improved in year two in the new regime. However, the schedule does not set up well for them, as only three of their nine conference games come against the bottom half of my projected Big Ten standings. I think they’ll be better than their record says, but I have a tough time confidently picking them in any Big Ten game outside of home matchups against UCLA and Maryland.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4)

Ceiling/Floor: 9-3/5-7

Projected Wins: Buffalo, Northwestern State, California, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern

Projected Losses: Ohio State, Iowa, Oregon, Wisconsin

Most Intriguing Game: Nebraska (Week 8)

Minnesota has developed into a solid program, year in and year out under head coach PJ Fleck, perennially hovering around the eight or nine win mark, and I believe this year will be no different. Though they have some roster and staff turnover, the Gophers should be able to get to around that win mark again with a manageable non-conference and home conference slate, and with Fleck at the helm. Though they’ll have to find at least decent production from someone in a quarterback room filled with question marks entering the season.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4)

Ceiling/Floor: 11-1/6-6

Projected Wins: Cincinnati, Akron, Houston Christian, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, USC, Iowa

Projected Losses: Maryland, Minnesota, UCLA, Penn State

Most Intriguing Game: Michigan (Week 4)

As strange as it sounds, Nebraska took a huge leap in 2024 by earning bowl-eligibility for the first time since 2016. All signs thus far point to Matt Rhule being the right guy to turn around the Cornhuskers; although they will likely never get back to where they were in the ‘90s. Rhule tallied five wins in year one, seven in year two and is building for an even more successful season in 2025. Sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola showed flashes but also struggled at times as a true-freshman last year, but you’d have to assume he’ll be improved heading into this season. A change at defensive coordinator could propose some challenges early, but the schedule is manageable enough to be able to get the train on the tracks by the time Michigan comes to town in week four.

Northwestern Wildcats

Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7)

Ceiling/Floor: 6-6/3-9

Projected Wins: Western Illinois, UCLA, UL-Monroe, Purdue, 

Projected Losses: Tulane, Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois

Most Intriguing Game: Minnesota (Week 13)

Year two under head coach David Braun was a disappointing 4-8 for Northwestern after an 8-5 season in his first year replacing Pat Fitzgerald. But adding quarterback experience in SMU transfer Preston Stone, and retaining a solid defensive line is reason for optimism in Evansville for 2025. Though, even if there is marginal improvement, it may not be seen in their record as they drew the likes of Oregon, Penn State, Michigan and Illinois in-conference, along with a tough trip to Tulane to open the season.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Projected Record: 10-2 (8-1)

Ceiling/Floor: 12-0/8-4

Projected Wins: Grambling, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers

Projected Losses: Texas, Michigan

Most Intriguing Game: at Michigan (Week 14)

The defending national champs are once again loaded with talent through portal editions and elite recruiting classes, despite losing lots of production to the NFL. Ryan Day will look to lead his squad to back-to-back national titles, which only one other team (Georgia, 2021-22) has done in the playoff era. But in order for that to happen, they’re going to have to find an answer in the quarterback room between Julian Sayin and Lincoln Kienholz. Both have massive potential but have taken minimal snaps at the collegiate level, so there’s no guarantee that it’ll click. But the Buckeyes have so much talent around the QB position on both sides of the ball, that I think the difference between 8-4 and 12-0 will be the level of play from whichever signal caller is out there.

Oregon Ducks

Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2)

Ceiling/Floor: 12-0/9-3

Projected Wins: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Indiana, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, USC

Projected Losses: Penn State, Washington

Most Intriguing Game: at Penn State (Week 5)

Coming off a college football playoff quarterfinal exit last year, Oregon is in a very similar spot to Ohio State heading into the 2025 season. Lots of talent almost everywhere you look on the field, but an unproven starting quarterback in UCLA transfer Dante Moore. Though the former five-star prospect was able to sit and learn behind Dillon Gabriel in 2024, so that should help his transition into the starting role. An almost completely revamped offensive line raises some questions entering the season as well, but I have the Ducks winning 10 games and likely earning an at-large into the playoff field.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2)

Ceiling/Floor: 12-0/9-3

Projected Wins: Nevada, FIU, Villanova, Oregon, UCLA, Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers

Projected Losses: Iowa, Ohio State

Most Intriguing Game: Oregon (Week 5)

If you’re looking purely at proven talent at the collegiate level and returning production across the board, Penn State may have the best argument of anyone to be ranked as the preseason number one team in the country. However, James Franklin’s inability to get over the hump against other elite teams has me hesitant to put them there, or even in the national title conversation. But if Franklin and the Nittany Lions are going to do it in any year, this may be their best chance. In a year where there’s not many top quarterbacks returning for top teams around the country, Penn State may be in a better position than anyone in America with Drew Allar returning to run the offense for a third straight season. Add a ton of returning talent around Allar, and I believe the Nittany Lions beat Oregon in a week five whiteout to get the inability to beat top 10 teams monkey off their back, and get revenge against Ohio State in December to claim the Big Ten championship.

Purdue Boilermakers

Projected Record: 3-9 (1-8)

Ceiling/Floor: 4-8/1-11

Projected Wins: Ball State, Southern Illinois, Rutgers

Projected Losses: USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Indiana

Most Intriguing Game: Rutgers (Week 9)

Purdue is likely in for another rough season under first year head coach Barry Odom, but it can’t get much worse than Ryan Walters’ final year, going 1-11 and winless against FBS teams in 2024. As do most teams with first year coaches in modern college sports, the Boilermakers will be littered with transfers and unfamiliarity across the board, and nothing tells me they’ll win more than three or four games in 2025. However, that doesn’t mean I don’t think they’ll take a step forward from where they were at and that Barry Odom doesn’t have long-term potential in West Lafayette, the success is just unlikely to come this fall.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Projected Record: 4-8 (1-8)

Ceiling/Floor: 7-5/3-9

Projected Wins: Ohio, Miami-OH, Norfolk State, Maryland

Projected Losses: Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State

Most Intriguing Game: Maryland (Week 11)

Rutgers will likely be another classic case of the record being worse than the actual team is. With only two games against bottom-half teams in the Big Ten and dates with all three of Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon, getting back to bowl-eligibility for the third-straight year will be a challenge for Greg Schiano’s squad, but not impossible. An easy out of conference schedule will help their chances, and the team could be good enough to find three conference wins, but the loss of star running back Kyle Monangai and nine defensive starters make me hesitant to make that prediction.

UCLA Bruins

Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7)

Ceiling/Floor: 8-4/2-10

Projected Wins: UNLV, New Mexico, Nebraska, Maryland

Projected Losses: Utah, Northwestern, Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, Washington, USC

Most Intriguing Game: Utah (Week 1)

UCLA likely has the biggest variance in ceiling and floor in the Big Ten, and maybe in the country. The steady improvement throughout the season in head coach DeShaun Foster’s first season, along with the addition of Tennessee transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava, are reasons for optimism for the Bruins in 2025. But the loss of some top receiving weapons and question if Iamaleava can raise the talent around him leaves a big gap between both sides of the coin in Pasadena. Can Iamaleava bring the same level of play he brought at Tennessee in 2024, or will the lack of talent and experience around him be the downfall of UCLA in 2025?

USC Trojans

Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/6-6

Projected Wins: Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, UCLA

Projected Losses: Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Oregon

Most Intriguing Game: Iowa (Week 12)

However you want to look at it, the Lincoln Riley era at USC up to this point has been nothing short of fascinating. Since going 11-1 in his first regular season with the Trojans, he’s tallied a record of just 15-11 in the last two years. But the talent level and potential with Lincoln Riley’s high-caliber offensive system is still there. The question just still is and may always be with a Riley-coached team – the defense. The Trojans did improve defensively from ‘23 to ‘24 in defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s first season, but it still wasn’t good enough to get USC to where it wants to go. I think it may take another slight step forward in 2025, and talented starting quarterback Jayden Maiava will now have the reigns for a full season, but I don’t see the Trojans taking a big enough leap to make the playoff this year.

Washington Huskies

Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/6-6

Projected Wins: Colorado State, UC Davis, Washington State, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, UCLA, Oregon

Projected Losses: Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin

Most Intriguing Game: Oregon (Week 14)

Washington is set up to make a huge leap in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch. With what I believe to be a potential superstar returning at quarterback in Demond Williams, and the leaps Fisch has made in year two with past teams, the sky's the limit for this Husky team. The schedule sets up well too, getting both Oregon and Ohio State at home, in what is currently the second-longest home winning streak in the country, and I believe they’ll pull an upset in one of those games. The biggest question is on the defensive side of the ball, where they only return one starter. They brought in talented transfers as replacements, but there’s always a question if they’ll mesh until the ball gets rolled out in week one.

Wisconsin Badgers

Projected Record: 5-7 (3-6)

Ceiling/Floor: 7-5/3-9

Projected Wins: Miami-OH, Middle Tennessee, Maryland, Washington, Minnesota

Projected Losses: Alabama, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Illinois

Most Intriguing Game: Iowa (Week 7)

Wisconsin may have improved from a year ago, but its record might not signify it, as they may have the toughest schedule in the country in 2025. The Badgers play four of the top five and seven of the top nine of my projected big ten teams, and that doesn’t include a daunting road trip to Tuscaloosa in the non-conference. They should be getting back to their bread and butter offensively though, as they’ll be going back to more of a ground-and-pound style of offense under new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. But given the schedule, getting to bowl-eligibility should be looked at as a successful season for the Badgers in 2025.

Full Standings Projection

Ohio State 10-2 (8-1)

Penn State 10-2 (7-2)

Oregon 10-2 (7-2)

Illinois 10-2 (7-2)

Michigan 9-3 (7-2)

USC 8-4 (6-3)

Iowa 8-4 (6-3)

Washington 9-3 (6-3)

Indiana 8-4 (5-4)

Nebraska 8-4 (5-4)

Minnesota 8-4 (5-4)

Wisconsin 5-7 (3-6)

Northwestern 4-8 (2-7)

Michigan State 5-7 (2-7)

UCLA 4-8 (2-7)

Maryland 4-8 (1-8)

Rutgers 4-8 (1-8)

Purdue 3-9 (1-8)

Big Ten Championship: Penn State over Ohio State

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