2025 Big 12 Football Predictions

Next up on our 2025 power conference projections, we have the Big 12! The Big 12 has been the most chaotic and unpredictable power conference for years now, and 2025 shouldn’t be any different. This league is still searching for its alpha dog(s) that are at the top of the conference every year, but teams like Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU have the potential to fill that role if they can build on 2024’s success. But who do I think will come out on top of college football’s most wild conference this fall? Here’s how I predict each team will do in 2025.

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Arizona Wildcats

Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7)

Ceiling/Floor: 7-5/3-9

Projected Wins: Hawaii, Weber State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

Projected Losses: Kansas State, Iowa State, BYU, Houston, Colorado, Cincinnati, Baylor, Arizona State

Most Intriguing Game: Oklahoma State (Week 6)

Arizona is coming off a disappointing 2024 season, where it went 4-8 in Brent Brennan’s first season at the helm despite being ranked in the preseason top 25. And after losing top 10 NFL draft pick and a cheat-code at wide receiver in Tetairoa McMillan, the pressure is on for Brennan to find success this year. The Wildcats brought in a handful of transfers and made changes at coordinator on both sides of the ball to try and address their 2024 issues, but none of the additions were groundbreaking, and I’m not a big believer in Brennan, so I’m predicting another disappointing season for the Wildcats.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2)

Ceiling/Floor: 11-1/8-4

Projected Wins: Northern Arizona, Mississippi State, Texas State, TCU, Utah, Texas Tech, Houston, West Virginia, Colorado, Arizona

Projected Losses: Baylor, Iowa State

Most Intriguing Game: Texas Tech (Week 8)

Arizona State took the college football world by storm last season, going 10-2, winning the Big 12 championship and making the playoff after being picked dead-last in the Big 12 preseason poll. They were so surprisingly good in 2024 that the Big 12 is doing away with its preseason media poll, starting this year. The Sun Devils are losing their All-American running back in Cam Skattebo, but they return nearly the rest of their production from a season ago, including Sam Leavitt, who’s likely the best quarterback in the conference. But we’ll get to see how important Skattebo really was to ASU’s offense. I think Kenny Dillingham’s squad will take a minor step back from last year, at least at the beginning of the season, but I think they’ll be right back again in contention to win the Big 12 title.

Baylor Bears

Projected Record: 9-3 (7-2)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/6-6

Projected Wins: Auburn, Samford, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Cincinnati, UCF, Utah, Arizona, Houston

Projected Losses: SMU, Kansas State, TCU

Most Intriguing Game: Kansas State (Week 6)

I’m extremely high on this Baylor team heading into the 2025 season. The Bears rattled off six straight victories to end the 2024 regular season after a 2-4 start, and returning quarterback Sawyer Robertson and the Baylor offense were balling by the end of the year. Outside of Robertson, the Bears have seven returning starters from that offense, but it will be the defense that has to improve if they’ll be in contention to win the conference. The Bears bring back five starters on that side of the ball from a year ago, and head coach Dave Aranda added good pieces in the portal to try and help that cause.

BYU Cougars

Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/5-7

Projected Wins: Portland State, Stanford, East Carolina, West Virginia, Arizona, Utah, Cincinnati, UCF

Projected Losses: Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU

Most Intriguing Game: at Iowa State (Week 9)

BYU is in an interesting spot going into the 2025 season. The Cougars are returning a lot of starters from an 11-2 campaign last season, but with the recent news of starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff entering the transfer portal after a violation of program rules, Kalani Sitake’s squad will now have questions at the QB position entering the 2025 season with no proven QB’s behind Retzlaff on the roster. On the other side of the ball, BYU had the best defense in the conference last year, but only return three starters from that unit, and none from the secondary, so it’ll be a question on whether they can keep that same production.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7)

Ceiling/Floor: 6-6/3-9

Projected Wins: Bowling Green, Northwestern State, UCF, Arizona

Projected Losses: Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Utah, BYU, TCU

Most Intriguing Game: UCF (Week 7)

Cincinnati has yet to find its footing since joining the Big 12 in 2023, missing a bowl game in the two seasons in the conference. It’s hard to tell how much of the drop-off has come from the step up in competition by being in a power conference, and how much has come from the head coaching change to Scott Satterfield before the 2023 season. But if Satterfield fails to reach bowl-eligibility again, his job is likely in jeopardy. The Bearcats do bring back a solid quarterback in Brendan Sorsby to lead the offense, but it’s hard to find a reason to be optimistic about this team in 2025, especially with a tough schedule as far as Big 12 schedules go.

Colorado Buffaloes

Projected Record: 6-6 (4-5)

Ceiling/Floor: 9-3/3-9

Projected Wins: Delaware, Wyoming, BYU, Iowa State, Arizona, West Virginia

Projected Losses: Georgia Tech, Houston, TCU, Utah, Arizona State, Kansas State

Most Intriguing Game: at TCU (Week 6)

Deion Sanders’ team surprised a lot of people in 2024, finishing 9-4 and being left out of the Big 12 championship game because of tiebreakers. But losing the Heisman Trophy winner and a top five quarterback in the country in Travis Hunter and Shadeur Sanders is going to be nearly impossible to replace. Hunter and Sanders covered up a lot of flaws in last year’s Colorado team, especially considering they won a bunch of close games. While Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter and true-freshman Julian Lewis have a huge upside at the quarterback position, neither one is a safe bet heading into the season. Along with that, the defense will have to be improved if they want to get back to Big 12 title contention, and the personnel they have on that side of the ball doesn’t impress me all that much.

Houston Cougars

Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4)

Ceiling/Floor: 9-3/4-8

Projected Wins: SFA, Rice, Colorado, Oregon State, Oklahoma State, Arizona, West Virginia, TCU

Projected Losses: Texas Tech, Arizona State, UCF, Baylor

Most Intriguing Game: Colorado (Week 3)

Houston is another team I’m higher on than most heading into the fall. In year one under Willie Fritz in 2024, I saw a lot of similarities between the Cougars and the 2023 Arizona State team in Kelly Dillingham’s first season. Now, I’m not predicting they’ll go on to win the Big 12 title like the Sun Devils did last year; but in terms of struggling early, to then playing better and finding an identity throughout the year, the 2024 Houston team followed that exact blueprint. The Cougar defense was solid last season, and the offense has re-loaded, including bringing in Texas A&M transfer quarterback Conner Weigman. Plus, I really like Fritz as a coach and trust his experience to be able to turn this Houston program around.

Iowa State Cyclones

Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 11-1/6-6

Projected Wins: South Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas State, Arizona, Cincinnati, BYU, Arizona State, Kansas, Oklahoma State

Projected Losses: Kansas State, Colorado, TCU

Most Intriguing Game: vs Kansas State (Week 0)

Coming off its best season in program history and a Big 12 championship game appearance, Iowa State will be a player again in the Big 12 title race this fall under head coach Matt Campbell. The Cyclones return 12 starters from a year ago, including signal-caller Rocco Becht who was one of the top QB’s in the conference in 2024. They’ll have to figure out a way to replace maybe the best wide receiver duo in the country last year though in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. In an effort to do this, Campbell brought in East Carolina transfer Chase Sowell and UCF transfer Xavier Townsend, but it may take a few games for Becht to mesh with the new weapons. On the other side of the ball, the Cyclone defense will always be one of the best in the Big 12 under defensive coordinator Jon Heacock. Heacock’s unit was riddled with injuries at the linebacker position last year, causing them to be poor against the run, but if they can stay healthy, they should be back towards the top of the conference in every stat.

Kansas Jayhawks

Projected Record: 7-5 (5-4)

Ceiling/Floor: 9-3/5-7

Projected Wins: Fresno State, Wagner, West Virginia, Cincinnati, UCF, Oklahoma State, Utah

Projected Losses: Missouri, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Arizona, Iowa State

Most Intriguing Game: Kansas State (Week 9)

Kansas had big expectations in 2024, but fell way short of them, completely missing bowl-eligibility at 5-7. But with a tough schedule riddled with close losses and wins over top teams in the conference, things may not have been as bad as they seemed for head coach Lance Leipold’s squad. And with quarterback Jalon Daniels returning, combined with solid additions around him in the portal, should give the Jayhawks reason for optimism in 2025. The defense has question marks though, only returning three starters from a unit that struggled a year ago, but Leipold added good pieces in the portal on that side of the ball too, the question is whether they’ll mesh into an improved unit.

Kansas State Wildcats

Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2)

Ceiling/Floor: 11-1/7-5

Projected Wins: Iowa State, North Dakota, Army, Arizona, UCF, TCU, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Baylor

Projected Losses: Texas Tech, Utah

Most Intriguing Game: vs Iowa State (Week 0)

Kansas State will likely be in the thick of the Big 12 championship once again in 2025, but can they get over the hump for the first time since 2022 and win the league title? With likely a  solid defense again, the Wildcats will almost certainly live and die by quarterback Avery Johnson this fall as they did a season ago. Johnson has shown flashes of greatness at K-State – both with his arm and legs, but he’s also had some head-scratching mistakes that cost the Wildcats some games, so if Johnson can avoid the latter, Kansas State may hoist the Big 12 championship trophy for the second time in four years. A huge week zero matchup with Iowa State in Ireland looms to start the season.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7)

Ceiling/Floor: 7-5/3-9

Projected Wins: UT-Martin, Tulsa, Cincinnati, UCF

Projected Losses: Oregon, Baylor, Arizona, Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State

Most Intriguing Game: Baylor (Week 5)

Coming off the worst season of head coach Mike Gundy’s long tenure, the expectations are at an all-time low for the Cowboys in 2025, but do they have one more run in them, or is this the beginning of the end for Gundy? Both sides of the ball with have fresh coordinators, along with very little returning production, so the program is going to have to hope that a lot of transfers pan out to avoid another disastrous season. While I don’t think they’ll go winless like they did in 2024, I do think it’ll be another season of struggles in Stillwater.

TCU Horned Frogs

Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/6-6

Projected Wins: Abilene Christian, SMU, Colorado, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, BYU, Cincinnati

Projected Losses: North Carolina, Arizona State, Kansas State, Houston

Most Intriguing Game: at BYU (Week 12)

TCU is coming off a sneaky good season in 2024, where it finished 9-4 and won six of its final seven games. The Frogs’ bread and butter a year ago was a prolific pass attack, and returning quarterback Josh Hoover should help retain most of that production, but losing their top target in Jack Bech certainly won’t help. But head coach Sonny Dykes’ squad will need to be better in the trenches on both sides of the ball if they want to compete for a Big 12 title, as they were towards the bottom of the league in rushing yards for and against last fall.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2)

Ceiling/Floor: 11-1/7-5

Projected Wins: Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kent State, Oregon State, Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, BYU, UCF, West Virginia

Projected Losses: Utah, Arizona State

Most Intriguing Game: at Utah (Week 4)

The current college sports landscape is set up perfectly for Texas Tech to build a powerhouse. With a wealthy fanbase and a good coach who has already established a good program, the sky’s the limit for the Red Raiders this year and in the near future, and this year could be the start of that. Head coach Joey McGuire went out and got one of the top transfer classes in the country this past offseason to add onto his already solid returning group. The defense was a problem last year, but with a fresh defensive coordinator and top transfer talent revamping that side of the ball, the Red Raiders are looking to make a big jump in 2025. If they can get at least one road win over Kansas State or Arizona State, we’ll likely be seeing McGuire’s squad towards the top of the standings by season’s end.

UCF Knights

Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7)

Ceiling/Floor: 7-5/3-9

Projected Wins: Jacksonville State, North Carolina A&T, West Virginia, Houston

Projected Losses: North Carolina, Kansas State, Kansas, Cincinnati, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, BYU

Most Intriguing Game: at Cincinnati (Week 7)

UCF parted ways with head coach Gus Malzahn after a disappointing 2024 season, but hired Scott Frost as his replacement, who has already had a successful stint with the Knights before leaving for Nebraska in 2018. While Frost has potential for future success in Orlando, it likely won’t be in 2025, as he will be needing to build from scratch. While it is possible in the portal era for a first year coach to completely turn a program around, I don’t think the Knights have enough talent or continuity to make it happen this year.

Utah Utes

Projected Record: 7-5 (4-5)

Ceiling/Floor: 9-3/5-7

Projected Wins: UCLA, Cal Poly, Wyoming, Texas Tech, Colorado, Cincinnati, Kansas State

Projected Losses: West Virginia, Arizona State, BYU, Baylor, Kansas

Most Intriguing Game: at UCLA (Week 1)

Utah should be a much improved team in 2025 compared to where it was in 2024, but a tough conference schedule will make it tough for the Utes to get to Arlington. The 2024 Utah defense was a typical defense under Kyle Wittingham, and finished towards the top of the conference in most statistical categories – the struggles came on the offensive side of the ball. With starting quarterback Cam Rising going down early in the season, and battling struggles and injuries with the QB’s behind him, that was a big reason for their offensive struggles a season ago. But now with New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier and his offensive coordinator from the Lobos with him running the show, the Utes offense should be vastly improved in 2025. They’ll have to win a lot of close games against good teams to be in contention for a conference title though, but so do most teams in this crazy league.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Projected Record: 4-8 (1-8)

Ceiling/Floor: 7-5/2-10

Projected Wins: Robert Morris, Ohio, Pittsburgh, Utah

Projected Losses: Kansas, BYU, UCF, TCU, Houston, Colorado, Arizona State, Texas Tech

Most Intriguing Game: Colorado (Week 11)

Rich Rodriguez is back in Morgantown for a second stint as the Mountaineers’ head coach, but it’ll be hard to repeat the success he had there in his first go around – at least right away. Rodriguez has a reputation of building elite offenses, but that’ll be a challenge this year with a completely revamped roster and an uncertain quarterback room, and it’s the same story on the defensive side of the ball. Could the Mountaineers surprise some people by way of Rodriguez’s elite X’s and O’s knowledge? Of course, but I don’t think that’ll happen this year, and maybe the toughest schedule in the conference doesn’t help matters.

Full Standings Projection

Texas Tech 10-2 (7-2)

Arizona State 10-2 (7-2)

Kansas State 10-2 (7-2)

Baylor 9-3 (7-2)

Iowa State 9-3 (6-3)

TCU 8-4 (6-3)

BYU 8-4 (5-4)

Houston 8-4 (5-4)

Kansas 7-5 (5-4)

Utah 7-5 (4-5)

Colorado 6-6 (4-5)

Cincinnati 4-8 (2-7)

Oklahoma State 4-8 (2-7)

Arizona 4-8 (2-7)

UCF 4-8 (2-7)

West Virginia 4-8 (1-8)

Big 12 Championship: I have no idea what the tiebreakers would look like in this scenario, but I’ll go with Texas Tech over Arizona State

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