2025 SEC Football Predictions

Benji Genise
Jul 4, 2025
11 min read

Updated: Aug 5, 2025

To conclude our 2025 power conference preseason predictions, we have the best conference in the sport, the SEC. After winning 10 of the 14 national championships between 2009 and 2022, the SEC has now failed to even make the national title game in the last two years. While the conference has still likely been the best in college football over these last two years, it has lacked the dominant team it had in most years from the late 2000s to the early 2020s. In 2024, Georgia was the first SEC champion in nearly 20 years to have two conference losses. Are we heading for a similar season in 2025, or will one or two teams surge to the top of both the conference and the country again? Here’s my prediction for every SEC team in 2025.

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Alabama Crimson Tide

Projected Record: 9-3 (5-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 12-0/8-4

Projected Wins: Florida State, UL-Monroe, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma, Eastern Illinois

Projected Losses: Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn

Most Intriguing Game: at Auburn (Week 14)

I believe another up and down year could be in store for Alabama in head coach Kalen DeBoer’s second season. DeBoer once again has a roster loaded with talent, but the question is whether they can put it all together for 12+ games in a season. At times in 2024, they looked like the best team in the country, but at other times, they didn’t even look like they belonged in a bowl game. This resulted in a 9-3 season and being the first team left out of the playoff. However, if they can find a way to stay at that top level consistently, and find a reliable starter at quarterback from a room of unproven talent, the Tide could be conference and national title contenders in 2025.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Projected Record: 5-7 (3-5)

Ceiling/Floor: 8-4/3-9

Projected Wins: Alabama A&M, Arkansas State, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Missouri

Projected Losses: Ole Miss, Memphis, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, Texas

Most Intriguing Game: Texas A&M (Week 8)

Arkansas is coming off a solid 7-6 season where they exceeded most people’s expectations, but with a tough schedule and a roster full of newcomers, it’ll be a challenge to get back to bowl-eligibility in 2025. The Razorbacks may live and die on the back of quarterback Taylen Green this season. Green has an ability to make plays with both his arms and his legs, but tends to force throws from time to time, leading to untimely mistakes. Developing for a full offseason under offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino should help, but being surrounded by nearly all new faces may pose a bit of a challenge.

Auburn Tigers

Projected Record: 8-4 (5-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/5-7

Projected Wins: Ball State, South Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mercer, Alabama

Projected Losses: Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia

Most Intriguing Game: Alabama (Week 14)

Things are trending up entering Hugh Freeze’s third season as Auburn’s head coach – at least in terms of recruiting and vibes around the program. But after compiling losing seasons in each of Freeze’s first two years at the helm, the pressure is on to produce some on-field results in 2025. A big reason the Tigers underachieved in 2024 was because of their number of turnovers – 22 to be exact with a number of them being about as untimely as you can get. But with turnovers being partially luck-based, we can assume that number will be cut down at least a little bit this fall. And with a loaded transfer class coming in, Auburn has no excuses not to at least make a bowl this year. We’ll see the Tigers tested right out of the gates as they play at a good Baylor team in week one.

Florida Gators

Projected Record: 9-3 (5-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 11-1/5-7

Projected Wins: Long Island, South Florida, Miami, Texas, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida State

Projected Losses: LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss

Most Intriguing Game: Texas (Week 6)

It might not be indicated in my projected record for the Gators, but Florida may be the team I’m highest on compared to the rest of the college football media landscape in 2025. The Gators remind me a lot of 2023 Florida State in the preseason, as they’re coming off a solid overall season but got hot by the end of it, and return a bunch of production, including an emerging star at quarterback. For the 2023 Seminoles, that ended up being a 13-0 season and being questionably left out of the four-team playoff. While I don’t see an undefeated season in the cards for Florida given its brutal schedule, I expect a similar-caliber team to that FSU squad. Returning quarterback DJ Lagway is a sleeper for the Heisman this year, and if he leads his team to the 9-3 record I’m projecting, that should be good enough for a playoff spot given the schedule, but there’s also a possibility they can’t get over the hump against many of the great teams they’ll have to play.

Georgia Bulldogs

Projected Record: 11-1 (7-1)

Ceiling/Floor: 12-0/8-4

Projected Wins: Marshall, Austin Peay, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida, Mississippi State, Charlotte, Georgia Tech

Projected Losses: Texas

Most Intriguing Game: Texas (Week 12)

Another year, another Georgia team that should contend for a national title under head coach Kirby Smart. Over the past four years, it’s hard to argue that Smart has possibly ascended to being the top coach in college football currently. With back-to-back national titles in ‘21 and ‘22, paired with four straight SEC title game appearances, the Dawgs have either built or are close to building a dynasty in Athens, and there’s nothing pointing to anything different in 2025. The defense only returns three starters from a year ago, but have re-loaded elite talent through development and the transfer portal. The offense is what may hold this team back from winning another national title, however. With questions at quarterback, a revamped offensive line and a running game that struggled a year ago, the Bulldog offense will have to come together to be able to earn their third national championship in five years.

Kentucky Wildcats

Projected Record: 3-9 (0-8)

Ceiling/Floor: 5-7/2-10

Projected Wins: Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Tennessee Tech

Projected Losses: Ole Miss, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Vanderbilt, Louisville

Most Intriguing Game: at Vanderbilt (Week 13)

Mark Stoops and Kentucky may be in for another rough year after a 4-8 performance in 2024. The Wildcats may be a decent team who’d be able to compete for bowl-eligibility in any other conference, but with possibly having the toughest schedule in the country this season, that likely won’t be the case in reality. Kentucky should have a decent defense as usual under Stoops, but the offense will likely be one of the worst in the power four once again. Texas A&M/Auburn/Incarnate Word transfer Zach Calzada might be a slight step up at quarterback from what they had a year ago, but the talent around him is average at best, and unfortunately for them, they play eight teams in my preseason top 30 in 2025.

LSU Tigers

Projected Record: 8-4 (5-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/5-7

Projected Wins: Louisiana Tech, Florida, SE Louisiana, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Western Kentucky

Projected Losses: Clemson, Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma

Most Intriguing Game: Florida (Week 3)

LSU has yet to make a New Year's Six bowl game in the three seasons since Brian Kelly took over as head coach, but 2025 may be the year Kelly gets over the hump. The Tigers might have the best – or at least safest quarterback situation in the conference heading into this year with Garrett Nussmeier returning to run the offense. With Nussmeier back, the passing game should be a strength of this team once again, but if the Tigers are going to contend for a playoff spot, the rushing game has to improve from last season, and the defense has to find more consistency.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Projected Record: 3-9 (0-8)

Ceiling/Floor: 5-7/2-10

Projected Wins: Southern Miss, Alcorn State, Northern Illinois

Projected Losses: Arizona State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Florida, Texas, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss

Most Intriguing Game: Arizona State (Week 2)

Mississippi State should be at least a little improved from its 2024 squad, who went just 2-10 and struggled to even be competitive in SEC play; but a brutal conference schedule and a date with Big 12 favorite Arizona State out of conference will make it very difficult to improve the win total much. The offense should be the better side of the ball for the Bulldogs in 2025, with it being year two under head coach Jeff Lebby, who has proven to be an elite offensive mind, along with getting quarterback Blake Shapen back after missing all of ‘24 with an injury. With how bad the Bulldog defense was in 2024, that unit should hopefully improve a little as well in year two under defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler and an overhaul of transfers.

Missouri Tigers

Projected Record: 6-6 (2-6)

Ceiling/Floor: 9-3/4-8

Projected Wins: Central Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, UMass, Texas A&M, Mississippi State

Projected Losses: South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Arkansas

Most Intriguing Game: at Auburn (Week 8)

Missouri is looking to continue the momentum the program has built up in the last two seasons, combining for a record of 21-5. But that may be a challenging task, as the Tigers lose nearly all their offensive production from 2024. Penn State transfer Beau Pribula proved he can use his legs in certain packages with the Nittany Lions, but he’ll have to prove he can be a formidable full-time starter for the Tigers this fall. Mizzou also loses one of the best weapons in the country in wide receiver Luther Burden, so it will be tough to try and replace his talent and production in the passing game. But with seven starters returning on defense and six straight home games to open the season, the Tigers may be able to find enough momentum early in the year to carry forward to a successful season.

Oklahoma Sooners

Projected Record: 9-3 (5-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 11-1/6-6

Projected Wins: Illinois State, Michigan, Temple, Auburn, Kent State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU

Projected Losses: Texas, South Carolina, Alabama

Most Intriguing Game: at Tennessee (Week 10)

Oklahoma has potential to be one of the top teams in the country this year, but is head coach Brent Venables ready to take that next step? The Sooners are bringing in a duo of offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer from Washington State to try and revamp an offense that struggled in 2024, and I’m all in on these additions. The Sooner defense is coming off a relatively successful season under a defensive-minded coach in Venables, ranking 13th in total defense. So if the defense can maintain its production from a season ago and make a jump on offense, the sky's the limit in 2025.

Ole Miss Rebels

Projected Record: 10-2 (6-2)

Ceiling/Floor: 11-1/7-5

Projected Wins: Georgia State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tulane, LSU, Washington State, South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida, Mississippi State

Projected Losses: Georgia, Oklahoma

Most Intriguing Game: South Carolina (Week 10)

Ole Miss is coming off a relatively disappointing 9-3 season where it missed the playoff after being ranked in the preseason top 10 and had all the makings to make a run at the national title. The Rebels are losing a lot of production from a year ago too, but with head coach Lane Kiffin’s mastery in the transfer portal, along with maybe the easiest schedule in the SEC, the playoff is still right there for them in 2025. A lot of the Rebels success this fall will depend on if quarterback Austin Simmons can live up to his potential, and if the portal pieces end up meshing.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Projected Record: 8-4 (5-3)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/6-6

Projected Wins: Virginia Tech, SC State, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Alabama, Coastal Carolina

Projected Losses: LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Clemson

Most Intriguing Game: Alabama (Week 9)

Similar to Florida, the 2024 South Carolina team finished the regular season on a heater, and return a good amount of production for 2025. I have the Gamecocks finishing 8-4, but that isn’t to say they won’t be a top 15 caliber team this season. If they have a successful season, a big reason for that will be quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who struggled early last fall but found his footing in the back half of the season. Star defensive end Dylan Stewart should be a disruptor for them once again this year too, helping a South Carolina defense who’s losing important pieces in the secondary from a year ago.

Tennessee Volunteers

Projected Record: 8-4 (4-4)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/7-5

Projected Wins: Syracuse, ETSU, UAB, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Kentucky, New Mexico State, Vanderbilt

Projected Losses: Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida

Most Intriguing Game: Georgia (Week 3)

Tennessee will be one of the more intriguing teams to watch in 2025. After the spring drama with former starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava leaving the program amid an NIL dispute, head coach Josh Huepel and the Volunteers were forced to make a desperate portal move and bring in Appalachian State transfer QB Joey Aguilar. While Aguilar was a solid player at App State, he’ll need to make a huge leap to be a serviceable starting QB at a playoff contender in the SEC like the Vols. Although Aguilar will be surrounded by decent talent and one of the top defenses in the conference, I believe he’ll hold Tennessee back from getting to where they want to go in 2025. That isn’t to say that Huepel made the wrong decision letting Iamaleava go though, as I think that’s what was best for both the program and the sport, long-term.

Texas Longhorns

Projected Record: 11-1 (7-1)

Ceiling/Floor: 7-5/3-9

Projected Wins: Ohio State, San Jose State, UTEP, Sam Houston, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Arkansas, Texas A&M

Projected Losses: Florida

Most Intriguing Game: at Georgia (Week 12)

Texas is my No.1 team in the country heading into this season, and I’m not the only one who thinks that. The Longhorns are once again loaded with talent in every position on the field, and quarterback Arch Manning has the potential to be the best QB in America this year. Head coach Steve Sarkisian has now proven he can win at the highest level as well, bringing Texas to back-to-back semifinal appearances in the playoff, but Sark has yet to win a national championship. We’ll get to see what this Longhorn team is made of right away, as they travel to Ohio State in what will likely be a top five matchup in week one.

Texas A&M Aggies

Projected Record: 6-6 (3-5)

Ceiling/Floor: 10-2/5-7

Projected Wins: UTSA, Utah State, Auburn, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Samford

Projected Losses: Notre Dame, Florida, Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Texas

Most Intriguing Game: Florida (Week 7)

Texas A&M is coming off an up and down season in 2024, where they started slow, hit its stride mid-season, but then failed to win one of its final two games to make the SEC title game. Even though I have the Aggies at 6-6, I trust head coach Mike Elko as a program builder more than former coach Jimbo Fisher, even if the recruiting isn’t quite where it was under Fisher. And like most teams in this conference, they should be better than their record says, I just have them losing a lot of close conference games. If the Aggies are going to contend for the playoff and and SEC title this season though, returning quarterback Marcel Reed will have to make more plays with his arm when teams adjust for his electric running ability.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Projected Record: 5-7 (2-6)

Ceiling/Floor: 7-5/3-9

Projected Wins: Charleston Southern, Georgia State, Utah State, Missouri, Kentucky

Projected Losses: Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Alabama, LSU, Texas, Auburn, Tennessee

Most Intriguing Game: Missouri (Week 9)

Head coach Clark Lea has done an amazing job to turn around Vanderbilt in his first two years at the helm. After going 2-10 in 2023, Lea made necessary changes with his staff and players to get them to a 7-6 mark in 2024, including an upset win over Alabama. Quarterback Diego Pavia is back this fall for the Commodores, and he showed his ability to put his team on his back at times last year, but with the lack of talent compared to most of their SEC foes, it would be another successful season for Lea and company to get to bowl-eligibility.

Full Standings Projection

Texas 11-1 (7-1)

Georgia 11-1 (7-1)

Ole Miss 10-2 (6-2)

Florida 9-3 (5-3)

Alabama 9-3 (5-3)

Oklahoma 9-3 (5-3)

LSU 8-4 (5-3)

South Carolina 8-4 (5-3)

Auburn 8-4 (5-3)

Tennessee 8-4 (4-4)

Texas A&M 6-6 (3-5)