No. 15 Oklahoma at No. 18 Michigan Preview and Prediction

Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images

Every Thursday afternoon, I’ll be releasing an in-depth breakdown of my top game of that given week in college football. This week’s game was pretty easy to pick as there’s only one ranked versus ranked matchup, and it’s between two powerhouse programs in Michigan and Oklahoma.

Like this content? Subscribe below!

Tale of the Tape

Line: OU -5.5 O/U: 45.5

Win Prob*: OU 55.38%

Cover Prob*: Mich 59.76%

O/U Prob*: Under 56.73%

Mich Strength (Rank)/Weakness (Rank)*: YPP Defense (8)/YPP Offense (129)

OU Strength (Rank)/Weakness (Rank)*: YPR Defense (10)/YPP Offense (119)

*Based on Final 2024 SNAP Ratings. 2025 SNAP Ratings will be ready entering Week 6*

In my opinion, this is a battle between two even, borderline playoff teams, with the winner of this game being in a great spot to make a run at the playoff, while the loser will have an uphill climb to try and get back into contention. This is especially the case with Oklahoma, as the game is at home and just the first of many tough games this season, with six currently-ranked teams left on its schedule after the Wolverines. Michigan has a little bit more of a workable schedule than the Sooners, but the difference between a win and a loss this Saturday will certainly have a big impact on where they’re at by the end of the season.

Oklahoma Offense vs Michigan Defense

I’m very intrigued to see both sides of the ball for both teams in this game. I think all four units are good, but I’m not sure if any are great yet, or how I’d rank them one through four at this point in the season. This will be the first time that the revamped Sooner offense gets tested, and it’ll be against one of the best defenses in America. The key to this on-field matchup is simple, yet could be overshadowed in my opinion, and it’s whether or not Mateer can be a dual-threat or not. If Mateer can get outside the pocket and make plays with both his feet and his legs to keep this Wolverine defense off-balance, I see the Sooners winning this matchup fairly handily. But if Michigan can contain Mateer in the pocket and make him beat them with a downfield passing game, I see the advantage going to the Wolverines. Oklahoma RB Jaydn Ott’s availability is still up in the air at this point, but signs point to him at least getting some snaps, which will help the Sooner offense become more multi-dimensional as well.

Michigan Offense vs Oklahoma Defense

As I said, I really have no idea how good any of these four units will actually be, but this on-field matchup may be the slightly more interesting one out of the two. To start, we’ll get to really answer the Bryce Underwood question for Michigan. Last season, the Wolverines were really just a QB away from being in playoff contention, but the QB play was so bad that they only ended up winning seven regular season games. Now enter the No. 1 ranked QB recruit in the country as a true freshman – will I be right in that it makes Michigan a Big Ten title and playoff contender, will the true-freshman not be quite ready yet or will I be wrong and the Wolverines are actually missing more than good quarterback play to get to that position. Well we’ll at least be able to get a little bit of an answer in Underwood’s first career test and first career road start. He’s going to have to play calm and smart, as he’ll be going against one of the best defensive minds in the game in Brent Venables, who will try his best to confuse Underwood and disrupt his timing.

Prediction

As I said in the lead, I think these two teams are nearly dead-even in almost every facet of the game. At the end of the day, I think the game is going to come down to quarterback play and who can make the most plays (or the least amount of mistakes) in crunch time. With that being said, I’m going to go with the more experienced QB and take the Sooners to win a close one at home.

Oklahoma 27, Michigan 24