Week 5 SNAP College Football Model Projections and Best Bets
Welp. I’m back. If you only follow my content here, it’s been a little bit (a lot bit) since you’ve heard from me – since last season to be exact. But I’ve been grinding out content on all of my social media platforms in the meantime, and will now be back for this season for this year’s SNAP College Football Predictive Model game projections and best bets.
With it now being Week 5, this week is the first week where I feel comfortable with the amount of data input to share the model’s in-season projections and best bets. This will be the ONLY place to find every single SNAP Model game projection every week, along with the extended best bets. I will be posting game projections for the top games of the week and the model’s top 10 bets of the week on all my socials every Thursday, but they will be available a day earlier on Wednesdays here (usually earlier in the day than this one). Thank you to all who have been or will be following along on this year’s journey, and let’s try and beat last year’s 65-45 best bet record!
In these projections every week, you’ll see below the win probability, cover probability and over/under probability, calculated by the model. You’ll also see the game score, a score of how good a game is likely to be. The scores range from 0 to 100, with 0 being the worst and 100 being the best. Typically, scores ranging from 0-25 will be a matchup of below-average teams or a game projected to be a blowout, game scores between 25-50 are solid matchups to watch but nothing special, scores from 50-75 are usually matchups between good teams that should be relatively close or a shootout, while scores ranging from 75-100 are the elite matchups we only get a couple times per week. Games are in chronological order, and every score projection is rounded to the nearest whole number.
Got questions about the model? Fill out the form on the ‘Contact Me’ page!
WEEK 5 BEST BETS
2025 Record: 65-45
2026 Record: 0-0
North Texas/Tulsa Under 58.5
Pitt +3.5 at Virginia Tech
UCF +12.5 at Houston
Boston College/SMU Under 55.5
Toledo/Ball State Over 51.5
Miami-OH -13.5 vs Bowling Green
Ohio -3.5 at Kent State
James Madison -18.5 vs Marshall
New Mexico -22.5 vs UTEP
Utah State/Boise State Under 51.5
GAME PROJECTIONS
Western Kentucky 25-33 New Mexico State (-2.5) (O/U 52.5)
Win Prob: NMSU 68.46%
Cover Prob: NMSU 62.46%
O/U Prob: Over 62.05%
Game Score: 24.17
North Texas 27-23 Tulsa (-2.5) (58.5)
Win Prob: UNT 60.88%
Cover Prob: UNT 66.94%
O/U Prob: Under 70.11%
Game Score: 43.99
Pittsburgh 29-19 Virginia Tech (-3.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: Pitt 71.40%
Cover Prob: Pitt 77.15%
O/U Prob: Under 60.91%
Game Score: 64.33
Liberty (-6.5) 28-20 Delaware (50.5)
Win Prob: Lib 68.93%
Cover Prob: Lib 53.72%
O/U Prob: Under 55.02%
Game Score: 31.57
Penn State (-2.5) 23-22 Northwestern (47.5)
Win Prob: PSU 51.72%
Cover Prob: NW 54.80%
O/U Prob: Under 58.07%
Game Score: 70.78
West Virginia 22-31 Iowa State (-2.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: ISU 71.57%
Cover Prob: ISU 65.33%
O/U Prob: Over 51.35%
Game Score: 54.93
UCF 26-27 Houston (-12.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: Hou 53.04%
Cover Prob: UCF 77.40%
O/U Prob: Over 54.53%
Game Score: 71.99
Michigan (-5.5) 26-21 Minnesota (43.5)
Win Prob: Mich 60.55%
Cover Prob: Minn 53.24%
O/U Prob: Over 58.27%
Game Score: 56.71
Stanford 18-32 Wake Forest (-12.5) (53.5)
Win Prob: Wake 79.50%
Cover Prob: Wake 51.81%
O/U Prob: Under 58.66%
Game Score: 35.94
Navy 20-33 Air Force (-3.5) (46.5)
Win Prob: AF 79.24%
Cover Prob: AF 72.20%
O/U Prob: Over 64.89%
Game Score: 20.65
Alabama (-5.5) 32-27 Mississippi State (60.5)
Win Prob: Bama 62.69%
Cover Prob: Miss St 50.85%
O/U Prob: Under 52.39%
Game Score: 92.80
Notre Dame (-21.5) 36-7 North Carolina (47.5)
Win Prob: ND 96.60%
Cover Prob: ND 69.61%
O/U Prob: Under 61.55%
Game Score: 38.17
Boston College 15-30 SMU (-20.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: SMU 82.38%
Cover Prob: BC 63.60%
O/U Prob: Under 74.30%
Game Score: 25.08
Middle Tennessee 16-31 Kansas (-18.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: KU 82.67%
Cover Prob: MTSU 59.07%
O/U Prob: Under 56.80%
Game Score: 17.59
Michigan State 20-25 Wisconsin (-9.5) (43.5)
Win Prob: Wis 62.34%
Cover Prob: MSU 61.71%
O/U Prob: Over 54.01%
Game Score: 56.53
Syracuse (-6.5) 27-21 UConn (50.5)
Win Prob: Syr 64.36%
Cover Prob: UConn 51.62%
O/U Prob: Under 55.54%
Game Score: 44.12
Vanderbilt 15-40 Georgia (-24.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: UGA 94.13%
Cover Prob: UGA 51.46%
O/U Prob: Over 56.58%
Game Score: 43.05
Western Michigan (-13.5) 33-18 Buffalo (46.5)
Win Prob: WMU 83.46%
Cover Prob: WMU 55.46%
O/U Prob: Over 62.03%
Game Score: 0.01
Toledo (-19.5) 45-18 Ball State (51.5)
Win Prob: Tol 95.76%
Cover Prob: Tol 70.49%
O/U Prob: Over 76.50%
Game Score: 0.48
Louisville (-3.5) 32-33 NC State (58.5)
Win Prob: NCSU 52.82%
Cover Prob: NCSU 62.12%
O/U Prob: Over 63.94%
Game Score: 65.46
California 22-23 UNLV (-2.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: UNLV 50.62%
Cover Prob: Cal 55.96%
O/U Prob: Under 68.77%
Game Score: 33.20
Eastern Michigan 15-33 UMass (-6.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: UMass 86.70%
Cover Prob: UMass 75.44%
O/U Prob: Under 52.14%
Game Score: 6.56
Akron 18-28 Central Michigan (-6.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: CMU 74.80%
Cover Prob: CMU 61.00%
O/U Prob: Under 53.71%
Game Score: 4.28
Virginia (-2.5) 26-22 Florida State (51.5)
Win Prob: UVA 60.76%
Cover Prob: UVA 54.96%
O/U Prob: Under 58.78%
Game Score: 56.97
Old Dominion 24-32 Georgia State (-2.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: GSU 68.37%
Cover Prob: GSU 61.43%
O/U Prob: Over 60.04%
Game Score: 35.48
Memphis (-20.5) 36-16 Charlotte (52.5)
Win Prob: Mem 89.31%
Cover Prob: Char 51.62%
O/U Prob: Under 51.77%
Game Score: 1.37
Bowling Green 13-35 Miami-OH (-13.5) (43.5)
Win Prob: Mia 92.06%
Cover Prob: Mia 71.69%
O/U Prob: Over 62.01%
Game Score: 3.22
Ohio State (-14.5) 24, Iowa 16 (45.5)
Win Prob: OSU 69.17%
Cover Prob: Iowa 66.74%
O/U Prob: Under 62.05%
Game Score: 66.52
Florida (-4.5) 34-26 Missouri (56.5)
Win Prob: Fla 69.23%
Cover Prob: Fla 59.33%
O/U Prob: Over 57.34%
Game Score: 66.51
Wyoming 9-34 North Dakota State (-18.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: NDSU 93.67%
Cover Prob: NDSU 66.72%
O/U Prob: Under 56.85%
Game Score: 7.31
Ohio (-3.5) 34-20 Kent State (50.5)
Win Prob: Ohio 81.54%
Cover Prob: Ohio 74.57%
O/U Prob: Over 58.19%
Game Score: 4.00
Auburn 24-27 Tennessee (-7.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: Tenn 58.02%
Cover Prob: Aub 61.18%
O/U Prob: Under 58.80%
Game Score: 72.80
Marshall 12-45 James Madison (-18.5) (56.5)
Win Prob: JMU 96.54%
Cover Prob: JMU 82.26%
O/U Prob: Over 52.89%
Game Score: 15.50
UTEP 10-47 New Mexico (-22.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: UNM 98.96%
Cover Prob: UNM 81.31%
O/U Prob: Over 69.24%
Game Score: 2.64
Maryland 16-35 Nebraska (-14.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: Neb 88.04%
Cover Prob: Neb 61.36%
O/U Prob: Under 52.52%
Game Score: 47.83
Purdue 25-39 Illinois (-10.5) (62.5)
Win Prob: Ill 81.19%
Cover Prob: Ill 59.64%
O/U Prob: Over 55.22%
Game Score: 47.43
Kentucky 24-29 South Carolina (-2.5) (53.5)
Win Prob: SC 62.93%
Cover Prob: SC 57.35%
O/U Prob: Under 52.94%
Game Score: 53.33
Oregon State (-6.5) 31-30 Colorado State (62.5)
Win Prob: OSU 53.19%
Cover Prob: CSU 63.61%
O/U Prob: Under 53.19%
Game Score: 55.99
UTSA (-11.5) 34-22 Rice (55.5)
Win Prob: UTSA 78.94%
Cover Prob: UTSA 53.64%
O/U Prob: Over 51.32%
Game Score: 22.77
Arkansas 20-32 Texas A&M (-13.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: A&M 76.81%
Cover Prob: Ark 54.72%
O/U Prob: Over 53.64%
Game Score: 49.77
Georgia Southern (-2.5) 24-23 Coastal Carolina (53.5)
Win Prob: Ga Sou 50.67%
Cover Prob: Coastal 55.91%
O/U Prob: Under 65.43%
Game Score: 29.55
UL-Monroe 22-40 South Alabama (-14.5) (57.5)
Win Prob: USA 87.18%
Cover Prob: USA 59.64%
O/U Prob: Over 61.31%
Game Score: 0.03
BYU (-6.5) 27-17 TCU (47.5)
Win Prob: BYU 73.67%
Cover Prob: BYU 59.56%
O/U Prob: Under 59.22%
Game Score: 54.70
Temple 23-27 South Florida (-6.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: USF 61.34%
Cover Prob: Tem 55.01%
O/U Prob: Over 53.76%
Game Score: 46.98
Miami-FL (-16.5) 35-14 Clemson (48.5)
Win Prob: Mia 90.59%
Cover Prob: Mia 61.92%
O/U Prob: Over 50.02%
Game Score: 47.16
Army (-2.5) 30-27 Louisiana Tech (47.5)
Win Prob: Army 57.24%
Cover Prob: Army 51.12%
O/U Prob: Over 72.03%
Game Score: 44.49
Washington 20-36 USC (-9.5) (58.5)
Win Prob: USC 84.30%
Cover Prob: USC 66.03%
O/U Prob: Under 54.16%
Game Score: 51.77
Utah State 12-32 Boise State (-20.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: Boise 88.51%
Cover Prob: USU 53.43%
O/U Prob: Under 67.97%
Game Score: 18.44
Texas Tech (-11.5) 32-15 Colorado (50.5)
Win Prob: TTU 86.20%
Cover Prob: TTU 65.37%
O/U Prob: Under 58.54%
Game Score: 28.38
Indiana (-24.5) 41-12 Rutgers (55.5)
Win Prob: Ind 96.54%
Cover Prob: Ind 61.97%
O/U Prob: Under 55.00%
Game Score: 35.29
Arkansas State 18-29 Louisiana (-6.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: UL 75.51%
Cover Prob: UL 61.92%
O/U Prob: Over 50.22%
Game Score: 25.3
Fresno State 21.8-22.0 Washington State (-2.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: Wazzu 50.55%
Cover Prob: Fresno 56.04%
O/U Prob: Under 54.23%
Game Score: 36.21
Baylor 24-23 Arizona State (-4.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: Bay 53.78%
Cover Prob: Bay 65.59%
O/U Prob: Under 54.68%
Game Score: 46.30
Texas State (-4.5) 26-28 San Diego State (59.5)
Win Prob: SDSU 57.56%
Cover Prob: SDSU 69.26%
O/U Prob: Under 62.62%
Game Score: 40.52
Cincinnati 26-29 Arizona (-7.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: Ariz 57.90%
Cover Prob: Cincy 61.31%
O/U Prob: Under 52.12%
Game Score: 56.43
San Jose State 25-24 Hawaii (-2.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: SJSU 53.51%
Cover Prob: SJSU 60.28%
O/U Prob: Under 57.36%
Game Score: 10.94
Remember, the SNAP Model is not perfect. Though it has proven to be accurate compared to most other models over the past couple years, it will still get games wrong, and nothing is guaranteed. If you're using the model to place real money wagers, DO NOT bet money you cannot afford to lose.
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