Week 11 SNAP College Football Predictive Model Game Projections/Best Bets
It’s time for another week of SNAP Model game projections and best bets, and this is one of the most loaded college football slates we’ve ever seen. This is the ONLY place to find every single SNAP Model game projection every week, along with the extended best bets. I will be posting game projections for the top games of the week and the model’s top 10 bets of the week on all my socials every Thursday, but they will be available a day earlier on Wednesdays here.
In these projections every week, you’ll see below the win probability, cover probability and over/under probability, calculated by the model. You’ll also see the game score, a score of how good a game is likely to be. The scores range from 0 to 100, with 0 being the worst and 100 being the best. Typically, scores ranging from 0-25 will be a matchup of below-average teams or a game projected to be a blowout, game scores between 25-50 are solid matchups to watch but nothing special, scores from 50-75 are usually matchups between good teams that should be relatively close or a shootout, while scores ranging from 75-100 are the elite matchups we only get a couple times per week. Games are in chronological order, and every score projection is rounded to the nearest whole number.
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WEEK 11 BEST BETS
2026 Record: 32-40
Last Week: 5-6
Louisiana -9.5 at ULM
UCLA -10.5 vs Illinois
Wake/SMU Under 60.5
Nebraska/Rutgers Over 51.5
Alabama -15.5 at Vanderbilt
Alabama/Vanderbilt Over 50.5
Liberty -20.5 vs Middle Tennessee
Baylor/BYU Under 49.5
Jacksonville State -7.5 at Western Kentucky
FAU/Tulsa Under 74.5
Michigan State +3.5 vs Washington
Troy/South Alabama Over 55.5
Colorado State +8.5 at Washington State
GAME PROJECTIONS
Buffalo (-2.5) 28-26 Ball State (O/U 51.5)
Win Prob: Buff 54.86%
Cover Prob: Ball 51.45%
O/U Prob: Over 58.08%
Game Score: 20.88
Sacramento State 13-32 Central Michigan (-17.5) (43.5)
Win Prob: CMU 88.12%
Cover Prob: CMU 52.71%
O/U Prob: Over 51.52%
Game Score: 0.45
UMass 21-33 Toledo (-14.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: Tol 77.36%
Cover Prob: UMass 56.58%
O/U Prob: Over 57.76%
Game Score: 23.77
Memphis (-3.5) 25-23 South Florida (50.5)
Win Prob: Mem 54.62%
Cover Prob: USF 54.37%
O/U Prob: Under 55.57%
Game Score: 49.13
Louisiana (-9.5) 35-15 UL-Monroe (49.5)
Win Prob: Lou 89.25%
Cover Prob: Lou 73.46%
O/U Prob: Over 53.11%
Game Score: 8.98
Florida State 23-29 Pittsburgh (-3.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: Pitt 64.82%
Cover Prob: Pitt 54.85%
O/U Prob: Under 58.23%
Game Score: 56.43
Illinois 14-33 UCLA (-10.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: UCLA 88.10%
Cover Prob: UCLA 70.19%
O/U Prob: Under 51.45%
Game Score: 47.61
Houston (-10.5) 30-15 Colorado (51.5)
Win Prob: Hou 83.68%
Cover Prob: Hou 61.57%
O/U Prob: Under 65.55%
Game Score: 37.14
Wake Forest 29-22 SMU (-1.5) (60.5)
Win Prob: Wake 65.13%
Cover Prob: Wake 68.67%
O/U Prob: Under 72.33%
Game Score: 69.41
Wisconsin (-7.5) 30-17 Maryland (43.5)
Win Prob: Wis 80.25%
Cover Prob: Wis 63.82%
O/U Prob: Over 58.67%
Game Score: 38.93
Duke 17-30 Miami (-13.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: Mia 78.84%
Cover Prob: Duke 51.82%
O/U Prob: Under 66.89%
Game Score: 65.54
Northwestern 20-34 Ohio State (-12.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: OSU 80.51%
Cover Prob: OSU 53.35%
O/U Prob: Over 68.98%
Game Score: 71.06
Syracuse (-2.5) 27-25 NC State (53.5)
Win Prob: Syr 56.31%
Cover Prob: NCSU 50.11%
O/U Prob: Under 53.11%
Game Score: 48.36
James Madison (-4.5) 38-24 UConn (57.5)
Win Prob: JMU 80.48%
Cover Prob: JMU 71.10%
O/U Prob: Over 60.06%
Game Score: 56.98
Auburn (-2.5) 26-28 Mississippi State (49.5)
Win Prob: MSU 54.13%
Cover Prob: MSU 58.92%
O/U Prob: Over 59.74%
Game Score: 60.71
Cincinnati 30.5-31.2 Iowa State (-3.5) (60.5)
Win Prob: ISU 51.67%
Cover Prob: CIncy 57.48%
O/U Prob: Over 53.10%
Game Score: 67.85
Georgia Tech 16-30 Clemson (-13.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: Clem 80.89%
Cover Prob: Clem 51.28%
O/U Prob: Under 54.48%
Game Score: 23.76
Nebraska (-13.5) 42-19 Rutgers (51.5)
Win Prob: Neb 92.78%
Cover Prob: Neb 72.45%
O/U Prob: Over 71.45%
Game Score: 38.95
Alabama (-15.5) 50-14 Vanderbilt (50.5)
Win Prob: Bama 98.69%
Cover Prob: Bama 86.94%
O/U Prob: Over 78.88%
Game Score: 48.60
Arkansas State 22-24 Coastal Carolina (-1.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: CCU 53.93%
Cover Prob: CCU 50.21%
O/U Prob: Under 60.76%
Game Score: 34.28
UAB 19-25 Temple (-2.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: Tem 65.16%
Cover Prob: Tem 59.83%
O/U Prob: Under 59.81%
Game Score: 22.32
East Carolina (-11.5) 30-15 Charlotte (45.5)
Win Prob: ECU 82.23%
Cover Prob: ECU 58.67%
O/U Prob: Under 50.53%
Game Score: 5.72
Kansas State 14-29 TCU (-10.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: TCU 83.00%
Cover Prob: TCU 60.48%
O/U Prob: Under 55.24%
Game Score: 29.08
Kennesaw State (-7.5) 27-17 Sam Houston (46.5)
Win Prob: KSU 72.41%
Cover Prob: KSU 55.36%
O/U Prob: Under 55.45%
Game Score: 17.44
Tulane 21-23 Rice (-1.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: Rice 54.10%
Cover Prob: Rice 50.39%
O/U Prob: Under 62.08%
Game Score: 25.43
Tennessee (-2.5) 21-17 Texas A&M (43.5)
Win Prob: Tenn 61.56%
Cover Prob: Tenn 55.84%
O/U Prob: Under 63.04%
Game Score: 51.10
FIU 24-22 Delaware (-5.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: FIU 53.90%
Cover Prob: FIU 66.12%
O/U Prob: Under 69.30%
Game Score: 29.05
New Mexico State 29-23 Missouri State (-1.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: NMSU 64.42%
Cover Prob: NMSU 66.95%
O/U Prob: Over 59.52%
Game Score: 20.45
Boston College 9-42 Notre Dame (-28.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: ND 97.88%
Cover Prob: ND 58.46%
O/U Prob: Under 51.00%
Game Score: 34.09
Middle Tennessee 12-45 Liberty (-20.5) (53.5)
Win Prob: Lib 98.01%
Cover Prob: Lib 77.59%
O/U Prob: Over 57.59%
Game Score: 19.00
Georgia Southern (-5.5) 29-26 Georgia State (56.5)
Win Prob: Ga Sou 57.37%
Cover Prob: Ga St 54.69%
O/U Prob: Under 52.84%
Game Score: 53.13
Nevada (-7.5) 31-17 Northern Illinois (47.5)
Win Prob: Nev 80.88%
Cover Prob: Nev 64.71%
O/U Prob: Over 52.87%
Game Score: 10.12
Baylor 17-24 BYU (-7.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: BYU 67.65%
Cover Prob: Bay 50.46%
O/U Prob: Under 70.45%
Game Score: 52.55
Arizona State 22-33 UCF (-3.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: UCF 75.81%
Cover Prob: UCF 67.62%
O/U Prob: Over 64.98%
Game Score: 48.74
Jacksonville State (-7.5) 40-20 Western Kentucky (54.5)
Win Prob: JSU 89.54%
Cover Prob: JSU 77.94%
O/U Prob: Over 61.47%
Game Score: 25.49
USC 17-29 Indiana (-7.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: Ind 77.45%
Cover Prob: Ind 59.94%
O/U Prob: Under 58.08%
Game Score: 64.91
Florida Atlantic 27-37 Tulsa (-5.5) (74.5)
Win Prob: Tulsa 72.47%
Cover Prob: Tulsa 60.64%
O/U Prob: Under 75.07%
Game Score: 9.83
California 16-30 Virginia (-10.5) (46.5)
Win Prob: UVA 82.19%
Cover Prob: UVA 59.19%
O/U Prob: Under 51.20%
Game Score: 27.86
Michigan 15-27 Oregon (-11.5) (38.5)
Win Prob: Oreg 77.25%
Cover Prob: Oreg 51.21%
O/U Prob: Over 56.76%
Game Score: 52.43
Missouri 15-33 Georgia (-15.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: UGA 87.53%
Cover Prob: UGA 57.74%
O/U Prob: Over 50.56%
Game Score: 51.75
Fresno State 22-30 Texas State (-9.5) (60.5)
Win Prob: TSU 67.73%
Cover Prob: Fresno 53.66%
O/U Prob: Under 67.61%
Game Score: 48.86
Washington (-3.5) 19-27 Michigan State (43.5)
Win Prob: MSU 68.68%
Cover Prob: MSU 76.41%
O/U Prob: Over 58.02%
Game Score: 46.29
Ole Miss (-1.5) 23-25 Oklahoma (49.5)
Win Prob: OU 55.06%
Cover Prob: OU 58.32%
O/U Prob: Under 54.36%
Game Score: 68.53
Southern Miss 15-36 Louisiana Tech (-17.5) (56.5)
Win Prob: LT 90.42%
Cover Prob: LT 56.96%
O/U Prob: Under 64.57%
Game Score: 25.54
Kansas 34.3-33.5 West Virginia (-2.5) (67.5)
Win Prob: KU 51.95%
Cover Prob: KU 56.66%
O/U Prob: Over 50.84%
Game Score: 72.15
Appalachian State (-1.5) 30-22 Marshall (53.5)
Win Prob: App 67.97%
Cover Prob: App 65.47%
O/U Prob: Under 53.93%
Game Score: 23.57
Oregon State 26-39 Boise State (-13.5) (65.5)
Win Prob: Boise 79.61%
Cover Prob: OSU 50.68%
O/U Prob: Under 52.52%
Game Score: 62.45
Florida 27-30 Kentucky (-3.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: UK 57.05%
Cover Prob: Fla 51.75%
O/U Prob: Over 60.64%
Game Score: 67.88
Minnesota 18-31 Penn State (-9.5) (41.5)
Win Prob: PSU 79.04%
Cover Prob: PSU 59.03%
O/U Prob: Over 66.03%
Game Score: 46.23
San Jose State 17-29 Air Force (-11.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: AF 77.52%
Cover Prob: AF 51.59%
O/U Prob: Under 52.96%
Game Score: 21.87
Louisville (-3.5) 26-30 North Carolina (59.5)
Win Prob: UNC 59.47%
Cover Prob: UNC 66.76%
O/U Prob: Under 57.18%
Game Score: 72.78
Troy 31-39 South Alabama (-3.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: USA 69.49%
Cover Prob: USA 60.19%
O/U Prob: Over 80.33%
Game Score: 36.99
UNLV 14-36 New Mexico (-14.5) (46.5)
Win Prob: UNM 91.60%
Cover Prob: UNM 67.28%
O/U Prob: Over 58.51%
Game Score: 40.25
Stanford 22-38 Virginia Tech (-15.5) (58.5)
Win Prob: VT 84.21%
Cover Prob: VT 51.46%
O/U Prob: Over 51.67%
Game Score: 31.57
Utah (-2.5) 27-22 Arizona (54.5)
Win Prob: Utah 61.19%
Cover Prob: Utah 55.43%
O/U Prob: Under 63.83%
Game Score: 65.02
Texas 20-22 LSU (-4.5) (46.5)
Win Prob: LSU 53.26%
Cover Prob: Tex 56.42%
O/U Prob: Under 60.33%
Game Score: 76.93
Purdue 15-33 Iowa (-17.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: Iowa 87.74%
Cover Prob: Iowa 50.91%
O/U Prob: Over 51.84%
Game Score: 44.26
South Carolina (-7.5) 33-21 Arkansas (51.5)
Win Prob: SC 76.06%
Cover Prob: SC 58.08%
O/U Prob: Over 56.25%
Game Score: 46.52
North Texas (-2.5) 38-31 UTSA (75.5)
Win Prob: UNT 68.26%
Cover Prob: UNT 62.30%
O/U Prob: Under 63.49%
Game Score: 60.09
Utah State (-2.5) 18-19 San Diego State (42.5)
Win Prob: SDSU 51.05%
Cover Prob: SDSU 56.72%
O/U Prob: Under 64.09%
Game Score: 23.59
Texas Tech 31-34 Oklahoma State (-3.5) (72.5)
Win Prob: OSU 57.52%
Cover Prob: TTU 51.24%
O/U Prob: Under 64.69%
Game Score: 79.79
Wyoming (-7.5) 29-17 UTEP (39.5)
Win Prob: Wyo 76.09%
Cover Prob: Wyo 58.13%
O/U Prob: Over 65.71%
Game Score: 0.90
Colorado State (-8.5) 31.05-30.98 Washington State (67.5)
Win Prob: CSU 50.17%
Cover Prob: CSU 71.60%
O/U Prob: Under 63.36%
Game Score: 38.38
North Dakota State (-6.5) 28-14 Hawaii (38.5)
Win Prob: NDSU 81.92%
Cover Prob: NDSU 68.53%
O/U Prob: Over 58.16%
Game Score: 25.79
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