Week 8 SNAP College Football Predictive Model Game Projections and Best Bets
It’s time for another week of SNAP Model game projections and best bets! This is the ONLY place to find every single SNAP Model game projection every week, along with the extended best bets. I will be posting game projections for the top games of the week and the model’s top 10 bets of the week on all my socials every Thursday, but they will be available a day earlier on Wednesdays here. We’re officially over halfway through the college football season, and through three weeks of these game projections and best bets. We’ve gone over .500 in two of the three weeks with our best bets, but are still slightly under .500 on the season. But this is the week we get back over!
In these projections every week, you’ll see below the win probability, cover probability and over/under probability, calculated by the model. You’ll also see the game score, a score of how good a game is likely to be. The scores range from 0 to 100, with 0 being the worst and 100 being the best. Typically, scores ranging from 0-25 will be a matchup of below-average teams or a game projected to be a blowout, game scores between 25-50 are solid matchups to watch but nothing special, scores from 50-75 are usually matchups between good teams that should be relatively close or a shootout, while scores ranging from 75-100 are the elite matchups we only get a couple times per week. Games are in chronological order, and every score projection is rounded to the nearest whole number.
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WEEK 8 BEST BETS
2026 Record: 18-20
Last Week: 9-7
James Madison -10.5 at Appalachian St (Thu)
Army +1.5 at Tulsa (Fri)
TCU -9.5 vs West Virginia
Western Michigan/Toledo Over 44.5
Baylor/Kansas Under 53.5
Alabama -13.5 vs Texas A&M
K-State/Arizona St Over 56.5
Utah St/Texas St Under 60.5
Kentucky -10.5 vs Vanderbilt
Tulane +2.5 vs UTSA
UTSA/Tulane Under 51.5
GAME PROJECTIONS
New Mexico State (-2.5) 22-24 Sam Houston (O/U 46.5)
Win Prob: SHSU 56.07%
Cover Prob: SHSU 61.92%
O/U Prob: Under 51.00%
Game Score: 23.42
James Madison (-10.5) 41-17 Appalachian State (56.5)
Win Prob: JMU 93.39%
Cover Prob: JMU 79.76%
O/U Prob: Over 51.92%
Game Score: 37.77
Liberty (-10.5) 25-16 Kennesaw State (49.5)
Win Prob: Lib 71.15%
Cover Prob: KSU 54.18%
O/U Prob: Under 68.55%
Game Score: 31.50
East Carolina 19-35 Memphis (-10.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: Mem 84.16%
Cover Prob: Mem 64.35%
O/U Prob: Under 52.92%
Game Score: 27.34
Duke 19-22 Virginia (-1.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: UVA 57.94%
Cover Prob: UVA 53.93%
O/U Prob: Under 66.06%
Game Score: 43.31
UMass 20-30 UConn (-14.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: UConn 73.32%
Cover Prob: UMass 61.89%
O/U Prob: Over 53.90%
Game Score: 26.68
Army 28-22 Tulsa (-1.5) (53.5)
Win Prob: Army 64.58%
Cover Prob: Army 69.11%
O/U Prob: Under 57.26%
Game Score: 47.77
Air Force (-5.5) 29-17 Wyoming (45.5)
Win Prob: AF 77.06%
Cover Prob: AF 65.41%
O/U Prob: Under 50.54%
Game Score: 15.06
NC State (-6.5) 36-25 Stanford (55.5)
Win Prob: NCSU 75.84%
Cover Prob: NCSU 62.35%
O/U Prob: Over 61.98%
Game Score: 35.34
Rice 24-33 Florida Atlantic (-7.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: FAU 72.26%
Cover Prob: FAU 55.17%
O/U Prob: Over 61.05%
Game Score: 25.80
Indiana (-7.5) 24-14 Michigan (41.5)
Win Prob: Ind 74.77%
Cover Prob: Ind 56.38%
O/U Prob: Under 58.56%
Game Score: 55.69
California 16-37 SMU (-19.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: SMU 90.26%
Cover Prob: SMU 53.31%
O/U Prob: Under 57.77%
Game Score: 31.20
Texas Tech (-11.5) 31-25 Cincinnati (56.5)
Win Prob: TTU 65.80%
Cover Prob: Cincy 63.03%
O/U Prob: Under 52.16%
Game Score: 62.46
Rutgers 20-43 Northwestern (-16.5) (58.5)
Win Prob: NW 92.20%
Cover Prob: NW 65.02%
O/U Prob: Over 61.25%
Game Score: 43.47
LSU (-8.5) 27-17 Auburn (50.5)
Win Prob: LSU 73.44%
Cover Prob: LSU 54.03%
O/U Prob: Under 65.34%
Game Score: 64.41
Pittsburgh 17-31 Miami-FL (-19.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: Mia 80.09%
Cover Prob: Pitt 65.49%
O/U Prob: Under 56.26%
Game Score: 63.59
West Virginia 15-35 TCU (-9.5) (57.5)
Win Prob: TCU 90.05%
Cover Prob: TCU 75.93%
O/U Prob: Under 68.33%
Game Score: 40.24
Western Michigan 24-29 Toledo (-3.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: Tol 63.33%
Cover Prob: Tol 55.17%
O/U Prob: Over 70.78%
Game Score: 33.97
Miami-OH (-2.5) 22-23 Central Michigan (40.5)
Win Prob: CMU 51.56%
Cover Prob: CMU 56.26%
O/U Prob: Over 61.37%
Game Score: 29.41
Baylor (-2.5) 22.4-21.9 Kansas (53.5)
Win Prob: Bay 51.16%
Cover Prob: KU 54.39%
O/U Prob: Under 71.83%
Game Score: 53.78
Akron 22-20 Kent State (-2.5) (46.5)
Win Prob: Akr 53.25%
Cover Prob: Akr 59.01%
O/U Prob: Under 61.40%
Game Score: 4.16
Oregon (-8.5) 41-20 Illinois (50.5)
Win Prob: Oreg 89.86%
Cover Prob: Oreg 76.57%
O/U Prob: Over 73.73%
Game Score: 55.51
Oregon -8.5 and O50.5 are not best bets due to QB Dante Moore’s injury
North Texas (-2.5) 37-28 Navy (62.5)
Win Prob: UNT 70.25%
Cover Prob: UNT 65.56%
O/U Prob: Over 55.13%
Game Score: 52.69
Boston College 22-23 Georgia Tech (-4.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: GT 52.69%
Cover Prob: BC 58.02%
O/U Prob: Under 61.27%
Game Score: 31.67
Texas A&M 14-36 Alabama (-13.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: Bama 91.27%
Cover Prob: Bama 70.81%
O/U Prob: Under 52.22%
Game Score: 58.66
Hawaii (-3.5) 20.0-20.4 Northern Illinois (47.5)
Win Prob: NIU 50.92%
Cover Prob: NIU 60.18%
O/U Prob: Under 67.01%
Game Score: 7.62
Sacramento State 20-32 Ball State (-13.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: Ball 78.58%
Cover Prob: Sac 52.80%
O/U Prob: Over 54.93%
Game Score: 0.00
Oklahoma (-4.5) 24-23 Mississippi State (44.5)
Win Prob: OU 51.66%
Cover Prob: MSU 60.08%
O/U Prob: Over 55.19%
Game Score: 64.42
Tennessee 28-21 South Carolina (-2.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: Tenn 66.95%
Cover Prob: Tenn 72.71%
O/U Prob: Under 53.56%
Game Score: 57.51
Tennessee +2.5 is not a best bet due to schedule dynamics
BYU (-6.5) 24-20 UCF (43.5)
Win Prob: BYU 58.82%
Cover Prob: UCF 57.75%
O/U Prob: Over 50.59%
Game Score: 66.31
Michigan State 16-28 UCLA (-13.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: UCLA 76.93%
Cover Prob: MSU 54.56%
O/U Prob: Under 52.65%
Game Score: 52.07
Bowling Green 17-27 Buffalo (-3.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: Buff 74.10%
Cover Prob: Buff 66.59%
O/U Prob: Under 50.14%
Game Score: 1.71
Iowa (-6.5) 27-19 Minnesota (40.5)
Win Prob: Iowa 69.88%
Cover Prob: Iowa 54.87%
O/U Prob: Over 62.48%
Game Score: 43.14
Kansas State (-3.5) 41-31 Arizona State (56.5)
Win Prob: KSU 72.37%
Cover Prob: KSU 64.55%
O/U Prob: Over 81.05%
Game Score: 59.41
Eastern Michigan 19-34 Ohio (-12.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: Ohio 82.04%
Cover Prob: Ohio 55.76%
O/U Prob: Over 59.81%
Game Score: 16.73
San Jose State 18-27 Nevada (-4.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: Nev 72.61%
Cover Prob: Nev 63.35%
O/U Prob: Under 51.98%
Game Score: 15.90
Louisiana (-10.5) 37-18 Southern Miss (52.5)
Win Prob: Lou 87.10%
Cover Prob: Lou 68.38%
O/U Prob: Over 56.24%
Game Score: 19.36
Old Dominion 15-33 Louisiana Tech (-12.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: LT 86.60%
Cover Prob: LT 63.62%
O/U Prob: Over 56.75%
Game Score: 24.77
Boise State (-13.5) 36-20 Washington State (51.5)
Win Prob: Boise 83.79%
Cover Prob: Boise 56.03%
O/U Prob: Over 59.26%
Game Score: 39.89
San Diego State (-1.5) 34.2-33.8 Colorado State (64.5)
Win Prob: SDSU 51.11%
Cover Prob: CSU 51.81%
O/U Prob: Over 58.74%
Game Score: 52.10
Colorado 17-31 Oklahoma State (-13.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: OSU 80.17%
Cover Prob: OSU 50.16%
O/U Prob: Under 67.52%
Game Score: 41.40
Georgia State (-2.5) 31-27 Arkansas State (58.5)
Win Prob: GSU 59.14%
Cover Prob: GSU 53.19%
O/U Prob: Under 50.24%
Game Score: 50.45
Virginia Tech 24-26 Clemson (-2.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: Clem 52.89%
Cover Prob: VT 52.56%
O/U Prob: Over 50.85%
Game Score: 50.93
USC (-2.5) 26-27 Wisconsin (49.5)
Win Prob: Wis 53.74%
Cover Prob: Wis 59.52%
O/U Prob: Over 58.82%
Game Score: 76.30
Utah State 16-31 Texas State (-12.5) (60.5)
Win Prob: TSU 82.50%
Cover Prob: TSU 56.49%
O/U Prob: Under 79.94%
Game Score: 16.36
Ole Miss 16-31 Texas (-3.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: Tex 83.65%
Cover Prob: Tex 75.16%
O/U Prob: Over 67.78%
Game Score: 63.54
Texas -3.5 not a best bet due to the model’s continual misses on the Horns
Vanderbilt 14-38 Kentucky (-10.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: UK 93.72%
Cover Prob: UK 80.48%
O/U Prob: Over 52.31%
Game Score: 28.81
Iowa State 20-28 Arizona (-9.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: Ariz 68.67%
Cover Prob: ISU 54.55%
O/U Prob: Under 57.23%
Game Score: 50.60
Syracuse 19-29 North Carolina (-8.5) (46.5)
Win Prob: UNC 73.08%
Cover Prob: UNC 53.57%
O/U Prob: Over 52.01%
Game Score: 46.58
UTSA (-2.5) 17-25 Tulane (51.5)
Win Prob: Tuln 68.90%
Cover Prob: Tuln 73.57%
O/U Prob: Under 73.02%
Game Score: 32.52
North Dakota State 20-19 New Mexico (-4.5) (41.5)
Win Prob: NDSU 51.92%
Cover Prob: NDSU 61.73%
O/U Prob: Under 55.21%
Game Score: 58.77
Houston 28-26 Utah (-6.5) (56.5)
Win Prob: Hou 54.51%
Cover Prob: Hou 68.03%
O/U Prob: Under 54.47%
Game Score: 82.15
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