Week 6 SNAP CFB Predictive Model Projections and Best Bets
It’s time for another week of SNAP Model game projections and best bets! This is the ONLY place to find every single SNAP Model game projection every week, along with the extended best bets. I will be posting game projections for the top games of the week and the model’s top 10 bets of the week on all my socials every Thursday, but they will be available a day earlier on Wednesdays here. We started off with a 6-4 best bet record last week after a 65-45 record last season. Let’s try and beat that this week!
In these projections every week, you’ll see below the win probability, cover probability and over/under probability, calculated by the model. You’ll also see the game score, a score of how good a game is likely to be. The scores range from 0 to 100, with 0 being the worst and 100 being the best. Typically, scores ranging from 0-25 will be a matchup of below-average teams or a game projected to be a blowout, game scores between 25-50 are solid matchups to watch but nothing special, scores from 50-75 are usually matchups between good teams that should be relatively close or a shootout, while scores ranging from 75-100 are the elite matchups we only get a couple times per week. Games are in chronological order, and every score projection is rounded to the nearest whole number.
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WEEK 5 BEST BETS
2025 Record: 65-45
2026 Record: 6-4
New Mexico St/FIU Under 47.5
Arkansas St -1.5 vs South Alabama
UCF +10.5 at Oklahoma St
Northwestern -36.5 vs Ball State
Toledo -20.5 vs Buffalo
Buffalo/Toledo Over 54.5
Duke -6.5 at Georgia Tech
North Dakota State -3.5 at UNLV
Air Force -7.5 at Northern Illinois
James Madison -7.5 at Georgia Southern
Louisiana/La Tech Over 48.5
Hawaii/Arizona St Over 49.5
GAME PROJECTIONS
Jacksonville State (-2.5) 22-23 Kennesaw State (O/U 48.5)
Win Prob: KSU 51.52%
Cover Prob: KSU 58.79%
O/U Prob: Under 58.39%
Game Score: 36.15
New Mexico State 16-21 FIU (-6.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: FIU 62.31%
Cover Prob: NMSU 54.21%
O/U Prob: Under 72.87%
Game Score: 18.43
Missouri State 25-29 Western Kentucky (-2.5) (56.5)
Win Prob: WKU 58.54%
Cover Prob: WKU 52.71%
O/U Prob: Under 56.38%
Game Score: 14.22
Sam Houston 18-31 Liberty (-13.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: Lib 79.88%
Cover Prob: SHSU 50.28%
O/U Prob: Under 57.53%
Game Score: 31.12
South Alabama 24-34 Arkansas State (-1.5) (58.5)
Win Prob: ASU 73.42%
Cover Prob: ASU 71.84%
O/U Prob: Over 50.32%
Game Score: 26.96
South Florida 22-25 UTSA (-7.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: UTSA 57.39%
Cover Prob: USF 62.42%
O/U Prob: Under 60.55%
Game Score: 35.75
Florida State 27-29 Louisville (-3.5) (60.5)
Win Prob: Lou 54.28%
Cover Prob: FSU 55.06%
O/U Prob: Under 60.59%
Game Score: 65.26
Iowa 21-19 Washington (-3.5) (41.5)
Win Prob: Iowa 57.00%
Cover Prob: Iowa 66.32%
O/U Prob: Under 53.78%
Game Score: 43.63
Washington State 17-22 Utah State (-5.5) (43.5)
Win Prob: USU 62.27%
Cover Prob: WSU 51.33%
O/U Prob: Under 62.17%
Game Score: 14.63
Wyoming 14-24 San Jose State (-6.5) (43.5)
Win Prob: SJSU 74.03%
Cover Prob: SJSU 60.03%
O/U Prob: Under 62.10%
Game Score: 0.24
Iowa State 17-31 BYU (-10.5) (46.5)
Win Prob: BYU 80.41%
Cover Prob: BYU 58.45%
O/U Prob: Over 52.84%
Game Score: 51.71
Texas A&M 19-27 Missouri (-3.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: Miz 68.57%
Cover Prob: Miz 60.13%
O/U Prob: Under 56.41%
Game Score: 57.90
Indiana (-7.5) 26-20 Nebraska (50.5)
Win Prob: Ind 63.45%
Cover Prob: Neb 55.30%
O/U Prob: Under 61.36%
Game Score: 68.59
North Carolina 14-32 Pittsburgh (-3.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: Pitt 87.17%
Cover Prob: Pitt 82.56%
O/U Prob: Under 54.95%
Game Score: 44.37
Pitt -3.5 is not a best bet due to QB Mason Heintschel’s injury
UCF 22-23 Oklahoma State (-10.5) (53.5)
Win Prob: OSU 53.31%
Cover Prob: UCF 72.70%
O/U Prob: Under 69.13%
Game Score: 67.69
Sacramento State 20-21 Bowling Green (-7.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: BGSU 52.69%
Cover Prob: Sac St 66.57%
O/U Prob: Under 59.24%
Game Score: 3.37
Tulane 21-22 Army (-3.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: Army 50.90%
Cover Prob: Tuln 57.29%
O/U Prob: Under 61.22%
Game Score: 44.79
Arizona (-3.5) 32-27 West Virginia (61.5)
Win Prob: Ariz 60.93%
Cover Prob: Ariz 52.50%
O/U Prob: Under 56.16%
Game Score: 59.10
Wake Forest (-3.5) 28-25 NC State (59.5)
Win Prob: Wake 58.37%
Cover Prob: NCSU 50.32%
O/U Prob: Under 66.23%
Game Score: 59.78
Ball State 7-54 Northwestern (-36.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: NW 99.83%
Cover Prob: NW 73.43%
O/U Prob: Over 69.45%
Game Score: 8.63
South Carolina 25-38 Florida (-12.5) (61.5)
Win Prob: Fla 79.30%
Cover Prob: Fla 51.52%
O/U Prob: Over 53.36%
Game Score: 60.91
Old Dominion 23-27 Appalachian State (-9.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: App 59.56%
Cover Prob: ODU 64.63%
O/U Prob: Under 51.02%
Game Score: 26.74
Miami-OH (-2.5) 25-28 UMass (47.5)
Win Prob: UMass 56.41%
Cover Prob: UMass 62.26%
O/U Prob: Over 62.50%
Game Score: 29.26
Virginia Tech (-9.5) 32-25 California (53.5)
Win Prob: VT 66.16%
Cover Prob: Cal 57.48%
O/U Prob: Over 60.23%
Game Score: 48.71
Charlotte 12-49 North Texas (-28.5) (57.5)
Win Prob: UNT 99.06%
Cover Prob: UNT 69.25%
O/U Prob: Over 58.66%
Game Score: 0.12
Eastern Michigan (-6.5) 32-22 Akron (52.5)
Win Prob: EMU 72.89%
Cover Prob: EMU 58.58%
O/U Prob: Over 52.37%
Game Score: 5.62
Illinois (-2.5) 22-26 Michigan State (48.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: MSU 60.33%
Cover Prob: MSU 66.22%
O/U Prob: Under 52.17%
Game Score: 49.88
Tulsa 22-19 Navy (-2.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: Tulsa 56.55%
Cover Prob: Tulsa 62.41%
O/U Prob: Under 67.27%
Game Score: 29.30
Central Michigan 21-24 Ohio (-2.5) (46.5)
Win Prob: Ohio 59.63%
Cover Prob: Ohio 53.72%
O/U Prob: Under 53.64%
Game Score: 22.41
UCLA 28-33 Oregon (-11.5) (58.5)
Win Prob: Oreg 61.72%
Cover Prob: UCLA 66.32%
O/U Prob: Over 54.31%
Game Score: 84.23
Ole Miss (-10.5) 30-23 Vanderbilt (59.5)
Win Prob: Miss 67.54%
Cover Prob: Vandy 58.50%
O/U Prob: Under 64.80%
Game Score: 49.77
Texas (-7.5) 23-13 Oklahoma (39.5)
Win Prob: Tex 73.54%
Cover Prob: Tex 56.80%
O/U Prob: Under 57.12%
Game Score: 62.30
Houston 32-26 Kansas State (-2.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: Hou 62.74%
Cover Prob: Hou 68.61%
O/U Prob: Over 56.31%
Game Score: 75.11
Buffalo 20-49 Toledo (-20.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: Tol 96.75%
Cover Prob: Tol 70.62%
O/U Prob: Over 80.12%
Game Score: 0.66
Kent State 11-30 Western Michigan (-13.5) (43.5)
Win Prob: WMU 87.62%
Cover Prob: WMU 63.06%
O/U Prob: Over 56.11%
Game Score: 0.92
Duke (-6.5) 34-15 Georgia Tech (48.5)
Win Prob: Duke 89.12%
Cover Prob: Duke 79.11%
O/U Prob: Over 51.82%
Game Score: 19.08
Stanford 9-53 Notre Dame (-37.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: ND 99.74%
Cover Prob: ND 66.56%
O/U Prob: Over 68.28%
Game Score: 31.09
UConn 21-32 Temple (-3.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: Tem 76.54%
Cover Prob: Tem 68.49%
O/U Prob: Under 53.64%
Game Score: 38.90
Rice 18-24 East Carolina (-9.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: ECU 63.68%
Cover Prob: Rice 59.26%
O/U Prob: Under 63.87%
Game Score: 16.04
Maryland 13-42 Ohio State (-34.5) (56.5)
Win Prob: OSU 96.20%
Cover Prob: Mary 63.81%
O/U Prob: Under 53.51%
Game Score: 53.55
Tennessee (-13.5) 33-18 Arkansas (51.5)
Win Prob: Tenn 83.21%
Cover Prob: Tenn 55.04%
O/U Prob: Under 52.34%
Game Score: 43.85
San Diego State 19-27 Oregon State (-14.5) (53.5)
Win Prob: OSU 68.84%
Cover Prob: SDSU 67.10%
O/U Prob: Under 66.50%
Game Score: 39.69
LSU (-9.5) 27-20 Kentucky (52.5)
Win Prob: LSU 68.66%
Cover Prob: UK 54.56%
O/U Prob: Under 63.59%
Game Score: 60.54
North Dakota State (-3.5) 28-15 UNLV (48.5)
Win Prob: NDSU 79.25%
Cover Prob: NDSU 71.76%
O/U Prob: Under 63.92%
Game Score: 38.14
UAB 18-36 Memphis (-14.5) (56.5)
Win Prob: Mem 87.58%
Cover Prob: Mem 60.44%
O/U Prob: Under 55.64%
Game Score: 22.85
Coastal Carolina 28-26 Marshall (-2.5) (58.5)
Win Prob: CCU 54.60%
Cover Prob: CCU 61.41%
O/U Prob: Under 62.29%
Game Score: 21.83
Nevada (-8.5) 35-18 UTEP (49.5)
Win Prob: Nev 85.04%
Cover Prob: Nev 69.56%
O/U Prob: Over 59.65%
Game Score: 0.66
Air Force (-7.5) 35-14 Northern Illinois (46.5)
Win Prob: AF 89.70%
Cover Prob: AF 79.20%
O/U Prob: Over 56.18%
Game Score: 11.00
James Madison (-7.5) 34-17 Georgia Southern (53.5)
Win Prob: JMU 85.99%
Cover Prob: JMU 73.28%
O/U Prob: Under 56.41%
Game Score: 37.43
USC 25-30 Penn State (-1.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: PSU 62.48%
Cover Prob: PSU 58.46%
O/U Prob: Over 51.37%
Game Score: 75.60
Syracuse 20-25 Virginia (-8.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: UVA 63.75%
Cover Prob: Syr 57.59%
O/U Prob: Under 64.27%
Game Score: 48.51
Louisiana 24-32 Louisiana Tech (-2.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: LT 71.10%
Cover Prob: LT 64.52%
O/U Prob: Over 68.17%
Game Score: 47.76
Georgia 26-36 Alabama (-1.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: Bama 73.75%
Cover Prob: Bama 70.26%
O/U Prob: Over 72.37%
Game Score: 92.13
Bama -1.5 and O52.5 not best bets due to likely weather conditions
Minnesota (-2.5) 28-24 Purdue (50.5)
Win Prob: Minn 60.04%
Cover Prob: Minn 53.17%
O/U Prob: Over 53.26%
Game Score: 48.14
Kansas 15-30 Utah (-15.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: Utah 83.63%
Cover Prob: Utah 50.45%
O/U Prob: Under 66.02%
Game Score: 50.11
Boise State (-6.5) 29-19 Fresno State (48.5)
Win Prob: Boise 72.95%
Cover Prob: Boise 58.65%
O/U Prob: Under 50.75%
Game Score: 49.07
Hawaii 18-39 Arizona State (-21.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: ASU 91.27%
Cover Prob: ASU 50.59%
O/U Prob: Over 68.48%
Game Score: 14.53
Remember, the SNAP Model is not perfect. Though it has proven to be accurate compared to most other models over the past couple years, it will still get games wrong, and nothing is guaranteed. If you're using the model to place real money wagers, DO NOT bet money you cannot afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER for 24/7 support.
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