Week 10 SNAP College Football Model Game Projections and Best Bets
It’s time for another week of SNAP Model game projections and best bets, and this is one of the most loaded college football slates we’ve ever seen. This is the ONLY place to find every single SNAP Model game projection every week, along with the extended best bets. I will be posting game projections for the top games of the week and the model’s top 10 bets of the week on all my socials every Thursday, but they will be available a day earlier on Wednesdays here.
I’m going to be honest, the success of this year’s best bets up to this point has been nothing short of disappointing. Last year, we had a great record of 65-45, and I have had similar success off the record the few years before that. But that has not been the case this season with our 27-34 record, and I apologize for that. I would love to think we’ll get it turned around in these last few weeks, and while that’s very possible (I still have hope), it could easily just be a down year for us. Even with the losing record, I’ll still be here every week posting the best bets along with the game projections, and I really do appreciate everyone who has kept up with these. So to that I say thank you.
In these projections every week, you’ll see below the win probability, cover probability and over/under probability, calculated by the model. You’ll also see the game score, a score of how good a game is likely to be. The scores range from 0 to 100, with 0 being the worst and 100 being the best. Typically, scores ranging from 0-25 will be a matchup of below-average teams or a game projected to be a blowout, game scores between 25-50 are solid matchups to watch but nothing special, scores from 50-75 are usually matchups between good teams that should be relatively close or a shootout, while scores ranging from 75-100 are the elite matchups we only get a couple times per week. Games are in chronological order, and every score projection is rounded to the nearest whole number.
Make sure to subscribe here FOR FREE so you never miss this every week!
WEEK 10 BEST BETS
2026 Record: 27-34
Last Week: 4-7
Toledo/Sacramento St Over 53.5
TCU/Arizona Under 44.5
Nebraska -4.5 at Illinois
Arkansas St -14.5 vs UL-Monroe
Kennesaw St +3.5 vs Delaware
Louisiana Tech -4.5 at Troy
Rutgers/Wisconsin Over 45.5
Boise St -16.5 at Colorado St
Boise St/Colorado St Over 68.5
Louisville -14.5 at Georgia Tech
Wyoming/UNLV Under 48.5
GAME PROJECTIONS
Ball State 22-30 UMass (-3.5) (O/U 49.5)
Win Prob: UMass 69.91%
Cover Prob: UMass 61.68%
O/U Prob: Over 54.85%
Game Score: 13.98
Toledo (-25.5) 44-19 Sacramento State (53.5)
Win Prob: Tol 94.32%
Cover Prob: Sac 50.49%
O/U Prob: Over 71.98%
Game Score: 6.64
Central Michigan 24-21 Eastern Michigan (-1.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: CMU 57.91%
Cover Prob: CMU 60.28%
O/U Prob: Under 50.55%
Game Score: 18.22
UTSA (-6.5) 40-29 Florida Atlantic (73.5)
Win Prob: UTSA 74.42%
Cover Prob: UTSA 60.52%
O/U Prob: Under 60.12%
Game Score: 46.47
James Madison (-14.5) 47-18 Southern Miss (58.5)
Win Prob: JMU 96.21%
Cover Prob: JMU 78.31%
O/U Prob: Over 66.48%
Game Score: 33.09
JMU -14.5 is not a best bet due to the model’s frequent misses on JMU
Virginia Tech 22-35 SMU (-6.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: SMU 78.51%
Cover Prob: SMU 65.86%
O/U Prob: Over 52.88%
Game Score: 48.25
South Florida 21-17 East Carolina (-1.5) (39.5)
Win Prob: USF 59.79%
Cover Prob: USF 62.22%
O/U Prob: Under 52.73%
Game Score: 29.82
Nebraska (-4.5) 32-18 Illinois (49.5)
Win Prob: Neb 81.59%
Cover Prob: Neb 72.53%
O/U Prob: Over 50.69%
Game Score: 49.46
New Mexico (-10.5) 29-17 Nevada (39.5)
Win Prob: UNM 78.97%
Cover Prob: UNM 55.32%
O/U Prob: Over 65.77%
Game Score: 39.99
TCU 16-19 Arizona (-9.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: Ariz 56.90%
Cover Prob: TCU 63.29%
O/U Prob: Under 71.69%
Game Score: 45.98
BYU 19-24 Utah (-4.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: Utah 63.04%
Cover Prob: Utah 52.20%
O/U Prob: Under 64.90%
Game Score: 61.93
UCLA (-5.5) 27-15 Minnesota (39.5)
Win Prob: UCLA 76.22%
Cover Prob: UCLA 65.33%
O/U Prob: Over 56.21%
Game Score: 46.52
Tulsa (-1.5) 19-22 Tulane (49.5)
Win Prob: Tuln 57.57%
Cover Prob: Tuln 59.63%
O/U Prob: Under 69.98%
Game Score: 32.25
Clemson (-2.5) 21-23 Syracuse (49.5)
Win Prob: Syr 54.74%
Cover Prob: Syr 59.56%
O/U Prob: Under 64.91%
Game Score: 45.50
Texas (-2.5) 25-15 Missouri (42.5)
Win Prob: Tex 73.59%
Cover Prob: Tex 67.36%
O/U Prob: Under 55.19%
Game Score: 55.86
Florida State (-6.5) 29-19 Boston College (51.5)
Win Prob: FSU 72.84%
Cover Prob: FSU 58.52%
O/U Prob: Under 57.21%
Game Score: 35.88
Iowa State 19-29 Baylor (-9.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: Bay 75.27%
Cover Prob: Bay 53.79%
O/U Prob: Under 58.82%
Game Score: 48.47
North Carolina (-6.5) 32-22 UConn (54.5)
Win Prob: UNC 73.43%
Cover Prob: UNC 59.27%
O/U Prob: Under 52.23%
Game Score: 52.95
Maryland 28-37 Purdue (-6.5) (57.5)
Win Prob: Pur 71.16%
Cover Prob: Pur 56.44%
O/U Prob: Over 67.96%
Game Score: 58.48
Duke (-4.5) 28-20 NC State (51.5)
Win Prob: Duke 69.14%
Cover Prob: Duke 59.22%
O/U Prob: Under 58.80%
Game Score: 42.90
Arkansas 16-31 Auburn (-10.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: Aub 83.53%
Cover Prob: Aub 63.32%
O/U Prob: Under 64.17%
Game Score: 34.71
Old Dominion 16-27 Coastal Carolina (-7.5) (43.5)
Win Prob: CCU 76.40%
Cover Prob: CCU 58.43%
O/U Prob: Under 51.68%
Game Score: 16.81
Oklahoma State (-4.5) 35-30 Kansas State (62.5)
Win Prob: OSU 63.33%
Cover Prob: OSU 52.53%
O/U Prob: Over 55.80%
Game Score: 63.04
Georgia State 28.24-28.21 Appalachian State (-4.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: GSU 50.08%
Cover Prob: GSU 60.87%
O/U Prob: Over 52.36%
Game Score: 46.43
Texas A&M 23-27 South Carolina (-7.5)
Win Prob: SC 59.41%
Cover Prob: A&M 59.72%
O/U Prob: Under 53.14%
Game Score: 59.33
UL-Monroe 14-40 Arkansas State (-14.5) (53.5)
Win Prob: ASU 94.57%
Cover Prob: ASU 74.19%
O/U Prob: Over 51.34%
Game Score: 1.44
Delaware (-3.5) 23-30 Kennesaw State (56.5)
Win Prob: KSU 66.00%
Cover Prob: KSU 73.96%
O/U Prob: Under 59.93%
Game Score: 30.86
Temple 23-27 Navy (-7.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: Navy 58.86%
Cover Prob: Tem 59.30%
O/U Prob: Under 62.26%
Game Score: 38.72
Penn State 28-21 Washington (-1.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: PSU 67.30%
Cover Prob: PSU 69.84%
O/U Prob: Over 61.18%
Game Score: 53.46
Oregon 21-28 Ohio State (-7.5) (46.5)
Win Prob: OSU 68.76%
Cover Prob: OSU 50.87%
O/U Prob: Over 56.53%
Game Score: 78.61
Marshall 16-32 Georgia Southern (-10.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: Ga Sou 84.09%
Cover Prob: Ga Sou 64.23%
O/U Prob: Under 66.66%
Game Score: 17.79
Western Kentucky (-1.5) 27-30 Middle Tennessee (53.5)
Win Prob: MTSU 57.02%
Cover Prob: MTSU 59.36%
O/U Prob: Over 59.45%
Game Score: 23.59
Charlotte 17-27 UAB (-9.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: UAB 72.89%
Cover Prob: UAB 50.67%
O/U Prob: Under 58.62%
Game Score: 67.47
Alabama 24-29 LSU (-5.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: LSU 60.78%
Cover Prob: Bama 52.99%
O/U Prob: Over 50.98%
Game Score: 93.70
Cincinnati 22-38 Houston (-10.5) (62.5)
Win Prob: Hou 84.10%
Cover Prob: Hou 62.25%
O/U Prob: Under 57.40%
Game Score: 63.45
UCF 25-27 Kansas (-2.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: KU 55.19%
Cover Prob: UCF 51.10%
O/U Prob: Over 62.13%
Game Score: 61.91
Missouri State 16-28 FIU (-4.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: FIU 76.41%
Cover Prob: FIU 67.00%
O/U Prob: Under 62.67%
Game Score: 9.83
Louisiana Tech (-4.5) 31-18 Troy (47.5)
Win Prob: LT 78.27%
Cover Prob: LT 69.32%
O/U Prob: Over 52.53
Game Score: 31.94
Northern Illinois 17-31 San Jose State (-10.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: SJSU 82.02%
Cover Prob: SJSU 58.91%
O/U Prob: Under 58.67%
Game Score: 2.07
Rice 22-42 North Texas (-16.5) (64.5)
Win Prob: UNT 89.54%
Cover Prob: UNT 58.47%
O/U Prob: Under 50.33%
Game Score: 35.66
Vanderbilt 20-36 Mississippi State (-2.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: Miss St 84.49%
Cover Prob: Miss St 80.01%
O/U Prob: Over 66.88%
Game Score: 37.67
Does not fully factor in Miss St QB Kamario Taylor injury
Rutgers 15-40 Wisconsin (-17.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: Wis 93.60%
Cover Prob: Wis 63.62%
O/U Prob: Over 71.87%
Game Score: 30.74
South Alabama 24-38 Louisiana (-8.5) (57.5)
Win Prob: Lou 80.80%
Cover Prob: Lou 63.13%
O/U Prob: Over 61.19%
Game Score: 36.93
Boise State (-16.5) 57-27 Colorado State (68.5)
Win Prob: Boise 96.87%
Cover Prob: Boise 77.22%
O/U Prob: Over 81.76%
Game Score: 50.18
Kentucky 19-26 Tennessee (-6.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: Tenn 65.79%
Cover Prob: Tenn 50.02%
O/U Prob: Under 64.21%
Game Score: 56.55
Sam Houston 13-31 Jacksonville State (-17.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: JSU 86.41%
Cover Prob: JSU 50.22%
O/U Prob: Under 60.95%
Game Score: 14.02
Michigan State 15-23 Michigan (-13.5) (40.5)
Win Prob: Mich 68.04%
Cover Prob: MSU 65.54%
O/U Prob: Under 55.85%
Game Score: 44.53
Louisville (-14.5) 46-22 Georgia Tech (61.5)
Win Prob: Lou 93.40%
Cover Prob: Lou 69.88%
O/U Prob: Over 64.98%
Game Score: 41.87
Air Force 26-32 Army (-3.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: Army 64.85%
Cover Prob: Army 54.88%
O/U Prob: Over 77.93%
Game Score: 52.47
Georgia (-3.5) 26.9-27.0 Ole Miss (56.5)
Win Prob: Miss 50.21%
Cover Prob: Miss 59.44%
O/U Prob: Under 56.34%
Game Score: 83.93
Miami 24-30 Notre Dame (-5.5) (57.5)
Win Prob: ND 63.57%
Cover Prob: ND 50.14%
O/U Prob: Under 58.77%
Game Score: 88.99
Iowa 21.5-20.8 Northwestern (-2.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: Iowa 51.65%
Cover Prob: Iowa 56.35%
O/U Prob: Under 57.97%
Game Score: 62.64
Oklahoma 23-27 Florida (-6.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: Fla 59.47%
Cover Prob: OU 55.06%
O/U Prob: Over 62.99%
Game Score: 62.71
Liberty (-17.5) 36-13 New Mexico State (46.5)
Win Prob: Lib 92.72%
Cover Prob: Lib 63.02%
O/U Prob: Over 56.30%
Game Score: 25.36
Hawaii (-9.5) 29-21 UTEP (49.5)
Win Prob: Haw 68.61%
Cover Prob: UTEP 54.53%
O/U Prob: Over 50.47%
Game Score: 6.84
West Virginia 24-40 Texas Tech (-16.5) (65.5)
Win Prob: TTU 84.71%
Cover Prob: WVU 50.31%
O/U Prob: Under 53.01%
Game Score: 58.37
Fresno State (-2.5) 20-15 Utah State (42.5)
Win Prob: Fresno 62.01%
Cover Prob: Fresno 54.32%
O/U Prob: Under 67.45%
Game Score: 26.00
Texas State 31-37 Oregon State (-6.5) (72.5)
Win Prob: OSU 65.81%
Cover Prob: OSU 50.04%
O/U Prob: Under 61.99%
Game Score: 65.14
Wyoming 14-25 UNLV (-6.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: UNLV 76.05%
Cover Prob: UNLV 62.62%
O/U Prob: Under 70.86%
Game Score: 14.35
Comments