Week 7 SNAP College Football Predictive Model Game Projections and Best Bets
It’s time for another week of SNAP Model game projections and best bets! This is the ONLY place to find every single SNAP Model game projection every week, along with the extended best bets. I will be posting game projections for the top games of the week and the model’s top 10 bets of the week on all my socials every Thursday, but they will be available a day earlier on Wednesdays here. After a 6-4 start on best bets a couple weeks ago, we had a rough 3-9 record in last week’s slate. But that’s fine! Still plenty of season left, and there were a couple rough weeks last year as well in our 65-45 overall performance.
In these projections every week, you’ll see below the win probability, cover probability and over/under probability, calculated by the model. You’ll also see the game score, a score of how good a game is likely to be. The scores range from 0 to 100, with 0 being the worst and 100 being the best. Typically, scores ranging from 0-25 will be a matchup of below-average teams or a game projected to be a blowout, game scores between 25-50 are solid matchups to watch but nothing special, scores from 50-75 are usually matchups between good teams that should be relatively close or a shootout, while scores ranging from 75-100 are the elite matchups we only get a couple times per week. Games are in chronological order, and every score projection is rounded to the nearest whole number.
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WEEK 5 BEST BETS
2026 Record: 9-13
Last Week: 3-9
Kennesaw State -3.5 at Missouri State
Sam Houston +1.5 vs Western Kentucky
Memphis/Tulane Under 55.5
Purdue -3.5 vs Washington
Texas -10.5 vs Florida
Indiana +3.5 vs Ohio State
Ohio State/Indiana Under 50.5
Rutgers/Maryland Over 57.5
Missouri +6.5 at Ole Miss
Miami-OH -9.5 vs Akron
Akron/Miami-OH Over 45.5
Louisiana -3.5 vs Troy
TCU/Baylor Under 48.5
Syracuse +14.5 vs Louisville
Louisiana Tech -15.5 at UL-Monroe
Louisiana Tech/ULM Over 56.5
GAME PROJECTIONS
Kennesaw State (-1.5) 34-15 Missouri State (O/U 51.5)
Win Prob: KSU 87.87%
Cover Prob: KSU 82.99%
O/U Prob: Under 56.24%
Game Score: 0.40
Western Kentucky (-1.5) 22-31 Sam Houston (52.5)
Win Prob: SHSU 71.46%
Cover Prob: SHSU 75.95%
O/U Prob: Under 50.40%
Game Score: 21.54
Georgia Southern (-3.5) 23-20 Old Dominion (47.5)
Win Prob: Ga Sou 57.45%
Cover Prob: ODU 51.32%
O/U Prob: Under 61.45%
Game Score: 28.73
East Carolina (-4.5) 20-21 UAB (47.5)
Win Prob: UAB 52.73%
Cover Prob: UAB 64.55%
O/U Prob: Under 65.13%
Game Score: 21.26
Colorado State 35-44 Texas State (-14.5) (69.5)
Win Prob: TSU 71.31%
Cover Prob: CSU 64.31%
O/U Prob: Over 70.31%
Game Score: 54.62
Memphis (-7.5) 24-19 Tulane (55.5)
Win Prob: Mem 61.50%
Cover Prob: Tuln 57.46%
O/U Prob: Under 77.20%
Game Score: 38.15
Appalachian State (-1.5) 22-24 Coastal Carolina (49.5)
Win Prob: CCU 54.19%
Cover Prob: CCU 58.40%
O/U Prob: Under 57.82%
Game Score: 24.71
Washington 22-34 Purdue (-3.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: Pur 78.73%
Cover Prob: Pur 71.13%
O/U Prob: Over 61.48%
Game Score: 42.96
Pittsburgh (-6.5) 29-11 Boston College (42.5)
Win Prob: Pitt 86.97%
Cover Prob: Pitt 77.35%
O/U Prob: Under 56.80%
Game Score: 26.89
Pitt -6.5 not a best bet due to QB Mason Heintschel’s injury
Florida 16-40 Texas (-10.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: Tex 93.19%
Cover Prob: Tex 79.32%
O/U Prob: Over 59.02%
Game Score: 62.55
Northwestern (-7.5) 27-19 Michigan State (48.5)
Win Prob: NW 68.68%
Cover Prob: NW 50.76%
O/U Prob: Under 57.40%
Game Score: 55.38
Georgia State 24-35 James Madison (-12.5) (57.5)
Win Prob: JMU 76.50%
Cover Prob: GSU 52.50%
O/U Prob: Over 54.21%
Game Score: 57.23
Cincinnati 35-34 West Virginia (-1.5) (63.5)
Win Prob: Cincy 53.01%
Cover Prob: Cincy 57.17%
O/U Prob: Over 64.02%
Game Score: 69.90
Mississippi State 23-32 LSU (-14.5) (58.5)
Win Prob: LSU 70.73%
Cover Prob: Miss St 65.29%
O/U Prob: Under 57.94%
Game Score: 73.70
Ball State 22-23 Bowling Green (-6.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: BGSU 53.37%
Cover Prob: Ball 63.42%
O/U Prob: Under 54.79%
Game Score: 4.99
Kansas 33-28 Kansas State (-4.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: KU 60.27%
Cover Prob: KU 71.67%
O/U Prob: Over 63.45%
Game Score: 62.54
Florida Atlantic 27-31 Army (-2.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: Army 59.38%
Cover Prob: Army 53.44%
O/U Prob: Over 56.93%
Game Score: 48.82
Ohio State (-3.5) 17-23 Indiana (50.5)
Win Prob: Ind 64.01%
Cover Prob: Ind 73.10%
O/U Prob: Under 75.53%
Game Score: 74.21
Virginia 21-27 SMU (-8.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: SMU 64.64%
Cover Prob: UVA 56.60%
O/U Prob: Under 61.73%
Game Score: 61.73
Rutgers 28-38 Maryland (-4.5) (57.5)
Win Prob: Mary 73.68%
Cover Prob: Mary 64.64%
O/U Prob: Over 70.22%
Game Score: 50.82
UMass 24-23 Buffalo (-6.5) (41.5)
Win Prob: UMass 50.57%
Cover Prob: UMass 65.32%
O/U Prob: Over 63.80%
Game Score: 20.67
Charlotte 10-37 Temple (-21.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: Tem 95.11%
Cover Prob: Tem 63.03%
O/U Prob: Under 51.35%
Game Score: 0.98
Western Michigan (-6.5) 22-20 Central Michigan (42.5)
Win Prob: WMU 54.73%
Cover Prob: CMU 62.07%
O/U Prob: Under 51.64%
Game Score: 25.52
Auburn 15-32 Georgia (-20.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: UGA 85.93%
Cover Prob: Aub 61.29%
O/U Prob: Under 57.53%
Game Score: 57.10
Northern Illinois 15-18 Wyoming (-8.5) (40.5)
Win Prob: Wyo 55.89%
Cover Prob: NIU 65.85%
O/U Prob: Under 67.81%
Game Score: 0.72
Georgia Tech 23-39 Virginia Tech (-9.5) (57.5)
Win Prob: VT 84.99%
Cover Prob: VT 67.15%
O/U Prob: Over 61.87%
Game Score: 37.19
North Carolina 21-20 Duke (-3.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: UNC 54.43%
Cover Prob: UNC 63.93%
O/U Prob: Under 64.93%
Game Score: 41.73
Penn State 21-20 Michigan (-6.5) (42.5)
Win Prob: PSU 52.65%
Cover Prob: PSU 68.72%
O/U Prob: Under 53.96%
Game Score: 55.50
Missouri 27-24 Ole Miss (-6.5) (58.5)
Win Prob: Miz 57.44%
Cover Prob: Miz 71.67%
O/U Prob: Under 68.04%
Game Score: 66.41
UNLV (-1.5) 20-21 Air Force (48.5)
Win Prob: AF 53.76%
Cover Prob: AF 57.95%
O/U Prob: Under 67.73%
Game Score: 42.55
Alabama (-8.5) 33-21 Tennessee (51.5)
Win Prob: Bama 77.34%
Cover Prob: Bama 59.22%
O/U Prob: Over 56.21%
Game Score: 78.70
Toledo (-5.5) 32-28 Eastern Michigan (53.5)
Win Prob: Tol 59.13%
Cover Prob: EMU 54.79%
O/U Prob: Over 66.02%
Game Score: 30.14
Arizona State 17-40 Texas Tech (-14.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: TTU 92.58%
Cover Prob: TTU 68.73%
O/U Prob: Over 69.32%
Game Score: 41.17
Akron 18-38 Miami-OH (-9.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: MOH 89.20%
Cover Prob: MOH 73.38%
O/U Prob: Over 75.79%
Game Score: 8.09
Tulsa (-4.5) 22-19 Rice (46.5)
Win Prob: Tulsa 57.30%
Cover Prob: Rice 54.13%
O/U Prob: Under 62.03%
Game Score: 24.06
Troy 22-36 Louisiana (-3.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: Lou 81.51%
Cover Prob: Lou 74.53%
O/U Prob: Over 68.86%
Game Score: 20.26
Washington State 12-36 Oregon State (-17.5) (52.5)
Win Prob: OSU 93.43%
Cover Prob: OSU 67.09%
O/U Prob: Under 61.16%
Game Score: 21.27
Kent State 8-35 South Florida (-20.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: USF 95.72%
Cover Prob: USF 65.99%
O/U Prob: Under 55.91%
Game Score: 0.41
Arkansas State (-6.5) 30-25 Southern Miss (62.5)
Win Prob: ASU 61.41%
Cover Prob: USM 54.93%
O/U Prob: Under 69.02%
Game Score: 34.89
TCU 17-18 Baylor (-6.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: Bay 52.74%
Cover Prob: TCU 64.06%
O/U Prob: Under 80.48%
Game Score: 48.43
Florida State 16-35 Miami-FL (-21.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: Mia 88.55%
Cover Prob: FSU 55.96%
O/U Prob: Under 60.98%
Game Score: 53.51
Nevada 10-32 North Dakota State (-14.5) (42.5)
Win Prob: NDSU 91.28%
Cover Prob: NDSU 66.51%
O/U Prob: Under 50.72%
Game Score: 21.81
Arkansas 22.9-23.1 Vanderbilt (-6.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: Vandy 50.24%
Cover Prob: Ark 64.63%
O/U Prob: Under 60.96%
Game Score: 36.12
Kentucky 16-26 Oklahoma (-6.5) (43.5)
Win Prob: OU 73.51%
Cover Prob: OU 59.36%
O/U Prob: Under 52.45%
Game Score: 53.12
Wisconsin 22.3-22.4 UCLA (-2.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: UCLA 50.23%
Cover Prob: Wis 54.37%
O/U Prob: Over 50.20%
Game Score: 68.73
Louisville (-14.5) 31-28 Syracuse (56.5)
Win Prob: Lou 57.29%
Cover Prob: Syr 75.96%
O/U Prob: Over 54.94%
Game Score: 66.68
Notre Dame (-10.5) 22-19 BYU (46.5)
Win Prob: ND 57.80%
Cover Prob: BYU 68.79%
O/U Prob: Under 63.57%
Game Score: 75.78
Oklahoma State 21-32 Houston (-4.5) (62.5)
Win Prob: Hou 75.25%
Cover Prob: Hou 67.55%
O/U Prob: Under 70.89%
Game Score: 67.48
Navy 21-31 UTSA (-6.5) (56.5)
Win Prob: UTSA 73.74%
Cover Prob: UTSA 59.66%
O/U Prob: Under 59.92%
Game Score: 33.53
Louisiana Tech (-15.5) 54-20 UL-Monroe (56.5)
Win Prob: LT 98.41%
Cover Prob: LT 87.55%
O/U Prob: Over 84.55%
Game Score: 18.41
San Jose State (-7.5) 29-21 UTEP (46.5)
Win Prob: SJSU 68.83%
Cover Prob: SJSU 50.95%
O/U Prob: Over 58.90%
Game Score: 6.95
Ohio (-15.5) 32-19 Sacramento State (48.5)
Win Prob: Ohio 80.11%
Cover Prob: Sac St 55.22%
O/U Prob: Over 55.99%
Game Score: 6.76
Utah (-15.5) 33-15 Colorado (49.5)
Win Prob: Utah 86.14%
Cover Prob: Utah 55.01%
O/U Prob: Under 52.99%
Game Score: 41.11
Wake Forest (-9.5) 29-20 California (53.5)
Win Prob: Wake 72.05%
Cover Prob: Cal 50.40%
O/U Prob: Under 59.62%
Game Score: 47.21
New Mexico (-14.5) 38-15 Hawaii (44.5)
Win Prob: UNM 92.34%
Cover Prob: UNM 69.11%
O/U Prob: Over 70.14%
Game Score: 23.08
Fresno State (-7.5) 29-21 San Diego State (46.5)
Win Prob: Fresno 68.65%
Cover Prob: Fresno 50.73%
O/U Prob: Over 58.56%
Game Score: 35.35
Nebraska 24-27 Oregon (-7.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: Oreg 56.49%
Cover Prob: Neb 62.76%
O/U Prob: Under 51.19%
Game Score: 79.18
Remember, the SNAP Model is not perfect. Though it has proven to be accurate compared to most other models over the past couple years, it will still get games wrong, and nothing is guaranteed. If you're using the model to place real money wagers, DO NOT bet money you can't afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER for 24/7 support.
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