Week 9 SNAP Predictive Model Game Projections and Best Bets
It’s time for another week of SNAP Model game projections and best bets! This is the ONLY place to find every single SNAP Model game projection every week, along with the extended best bets. I will be posting game projections for the top games of the week and the model’s top 10 bets of the week on all my socials every Thursday, but they will be available a day earlier on Wednesdays here. We’re officially over halfway through the college football season, and through four weeks of these game projections and best bets. We’ve gone over .500 in two of the four weeks with our best bets, but are still slightly under .500 on the season. But this is the week we get back over!
In these projections every week, you’ll see below the win probability, cover probability and over/under probability, calculated by the model. You’ll also see the game score, a score of how good a game is likely to be. The scores range from 0 to 100, with 0 being the worst and 100 being the best. Typically, scores ranging from 0-25 will be a matchup of below-average teams or a game projected to be a blowout, game scores between 25-50 are solid matchups to watch but nothing special, scores from 50-75 are usually matchups between good teams that should be relatively close or a shootout, while scores ranging from 75-100 are the elite matchups we only get a couple times per week. Games are in chronological order, and every score projection is rounded to the nearest whole number.
Make sure to subscribe below FOR FREE so you never miss this every week!
WEEK 9 BEST BETS
2026 Record: 23-26
Last Week: 5-6
James Madison -20.5 vs Troy
Troy/JMU Over 51.5
Louisiana Tech -5.5 at South Alabama
Louisville -22.5 vs Stanford
North Dakota State -23.5 vs UTEP
UTEP/NDSU Over 42.5
Colorado St/Utah St Under 63.5
FIU/Liberty Under 45.5
Florida/Georgia Over 55.5
Virginia/Wake Forest Under 49.5
Nebraska -7.5 vs Washington
GAME PROJECTIONS
Kennesaw State 24-22 Middle Tennessee (-2.5) (O/U 51.5)
Win Prob: KSU 55.87%
Cover Prob: KSU 62.71%
O/U Prob: Under 63.85%
Game Score: 22.46
Jacksonville State (-3.5) 32-25 New Mexico State (49.5)
Win Prob: JSU 65.64%
Cover Prob: JSU 57.78%
O/U Prob: Over 67.85%
Game Score: 38.94
Florida Atlantic 33-53 North Texas (-13.5) (76.5)
Win Prob: UNT 90.40%
Cover Prob: UNT 66.85%
O/U Prob: Over 70.55%
Game Score: 56.06
Troy 16-50 James Madison (-20.5) (51.5)
Win Prob: JMU 98.32%
Cover Prob: JMU 79.58%
O/U Prob: Over 80.32%
Game Score: 28.54
Tulane (-10.5) 27-13 Charlotte (46.5)
Win Prob: Tuln 80.77%
Cover Prob: Tuln 59.00%
O/U Prob: Under 63.69%
Game Score: 5.41
Baylor 19-25 UCF (-1.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: UCF 63.89%
Cover Prob: UCF 60.99%
O/U Prob: Under 62.37%
Game Score: 53.50
Kent State (-10.5) 22-19 Sacramento State (46.5)
Win Prob: Kent 56.95%
Cover Prob: Sac 68.61%
O/U Prob: Under 63.10%
Game Score: 0.34
SMU (-9.5) 30-23 Syracuse (58.5)
Win Prob: SMU 66.68%
Cover Prob: Syr 56.89%
O/U Prob: Under 64.71%
Game Score: 53.33
Wisconsin 19-16 Iowa (-3.5) (36.5)
Win Prob: Wis 57.35%
Cover Prob: Wis 65.68%
O/U Prob: Under 53.28%
Game Score: 51.49
Bowling Green 15-33 Western Michigan (-13.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: WMU 87.35%
Cover Prob: WMU 62.52%
O/U Prob: Over 58.88%
Game Score: 7.61
Illinois (-2.5) 30.9-30.6 Maryland (54.5)
Win Prob: Ill 50.97%
Cover Prob: Mary 53.60%
O/U Prob: Over 66.89%
Game Score: 62.37
Arizona 22-25 Texas Tech (-3.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: TTU 57.86%
Cover Prob: Ariz 50.87%
O/U Prob: Under 69.62%
Game Score: 60.15
Boston College 17-24 Duke (-7.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: Duke 66.91%
Cover Prob: BC 51.33%
O/U Prob: Under 67.85%
Game Score: 33.29
UAB 13-25 South Florida (-7.5) (42.5)
Win Prob: USF 78.76%
Cover Prob: USF 62.73%
O/U Prob: Under 61.42%
Game Score: 16.65
California 26-34 NC State (-6.5) (56.5)
Win Prob: NCSU 68.85%
Cover Prob: NCSU 53.62%
O/U Prob: Over 59.28%
Game Score: 41.38
Notre Dame (-30.5) 45-14 Navy (57.5)
Win Prob: ND 97.42%
Cover Prob: ND 51.71%
O/U Prob: Over 54.88%
Game Score: 47.92
Michigan (-14.5) 34-17 Rutgers (46.5)
Win Prob: Mich 84.66%
Cover Prob: Mich 54.91%
O/U Prob: Over 61.07%
Game Score: 36.25
Auburn 23-30 Ole Miss (-13.5) (57.5)
Win Prob: Miss 64.87%
Cover Prob: Aub 66.89%
O/U Prob: Under 61.58%
Game Score: 68.70
Marshall (-2.5) 17-21 Old Dominion (45.5)
Win Prob: ODU 58.01%
Cover Prob: ODU 62.89%
O/U Prob: Under 67.93%
Game Score: 9.55
Coastal Carolina 25-35 Georgia State (-6.5) (58.5)
Win Prob: GSU 73.39%
Cover Prob: GSU 59.21%
O/U Prob: Over 52.49%
Game Score: 39.36
Kansas State (-2.5) 27-24 Colorado (47.5)
Win Prob: KSU 57.30%
Cover Prob: KSU 51.18%
O/U Prob: Over 58.75%
Game Score: 41.54
Temple 25-24 East Carolina (-5.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: Tem 52.19%
Cover Prob: Tem 64.47%
O/U Prob: Under 53.92%
Game Score: 36.24
UConn 28-27 Air Force (-2.5) (53.5)
Win Prob: UConn 52.82%
Cover Prob: UConn 57.57%
O/U Prob: Over 53.75%
Game Score: 48.62
Louisiana Tech (-5.5) 44-25 South Alabama (57.5)
Win Prob: LT 87.44%
Cover Prob: LT 78.44%
O/U Prob: Over 74.81%
Game Score: 41.66
Stanford 16-47 Louisville (-22.5) (60.5)
Win Prob: Lou 97.18%
Cover Prob: Lou 68.36%
O/U Prob: Over 56.61%
Game Score: 31.28
UTEP 7-46 North Dakota State (-23.5) (42.5)
Win Prob: NDSU 99.18%
Cover Prob: NDSU 81.99%
O/U Prob: Over 74.44%
Game Score: 7.62
Colorado State 28-26 Utah State (-6.5) (63.5)
Win Prob: CSU 53.40%
Cover Prob: CSU 68.00%
O/U Prob: Under 72.87%
Game Score: 32.12
Arizona State 15-39 BYU (-16.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: BYU 93.49%
Cover Prob: BYU 68.66%
O/U Prob: Over 62.86%
Game Score: 41.35
Kansas 15-23 TCU (-5.5) (46.5)
Win Prob: TCU 69.15%
Cover Prob: TCU 56.63%
O/U Prob: Under 69.10%
Game Score: 41.70
FIU 10-23 Liberty (-13.5) (45.5)
Win Prob: Lib 78.28%
Cover Prob: FIU 52.63%
O/U Prob: Under 76.75%
Game Score: 25.22
Florida 26-39 Georgia (-11.5) (55.5)
Win Prob: UGA 78.43%
Cover Prob: UGA 52.89%
O/U Prob: Over 72.02%
Game Score: 75.18
Southern Miss (-3.5) 28-20 UL-Monroe (56.5)
Win Prob: USM 67.92%
Cover Prob: USM 60.38%
O/U Prob: Under 69.47%
Game Score: 2.75
Northwestern 21-26 Oregon (-3.5) (47.5)
Win Prob: Oreg 62.12%
Cover Prob: Oreg 53.82%
O/U Prob: Under 50.28%
Game Score: 67.47
Minnesota 7-34 Indiana (-20.5) (41.5)
Win Prob: Ind 95.58%
Cover Prob: Ind 66.38%
O/U Prob: Under 50.55%
Game Score: 32.32
Utah (-6.5) 30-24 Cincinnati (56.5)
Win Prob: Utah 64.86%
Cover Prob: Cincy 51.05%
O/U Prob: Under 54.61%
Game Score: 66.46
Virginia 15-25 Wake Forest (-12.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: Wake 73.31%
Cover Prob: UVA 56.73%
O/U Prob: Under 71.71%
Game Score: 47.49
New Mexico (-14.5) 36-12 San Jose State (41.5)
Win Prob: UNM 93.35%
Cover Prob: UNM 71.76%
O/U Prob: Over 66.59%
Game Score: 25.62
South Carolina 17-27 Oklahoma (-4.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: OU 72.07%
Cover Prob: OU 61.70%
O/U Prob: Under 50.94%
Game Score: 50.16
Purdue 22-37 Penn State (-7.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: PSU 82.91%
Cover Prob: PSU 67.63%
O/U Prob: Over 60.50%
Game Score: 58.53
Nevada 12-34 UCLA (-22.5) (44.5)
Win Prob: UCLA 90.80%
Cover Prob: Nev 53.31%
O/U Prob: Over 53.47%
Game Score: 33.60
Appalachian State 22-27 Georgia Southern (-5.5) (56.5)
Win Prob: Ga Sou 62.66%
Cover Prob: App 50.89%
O/U Prob: Under 68.13%
Game Score: 35.75
Oklahoma State (-8.5) 31-26 Iowa State (58.5)
Win Prob: OSU 63.41%
Cover Prob: ISU 57.96%
O/U Prob: Under 53.02%
Game Score: 62.01
Clemson 17-26 Florida State (-6.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: FSU 72.26%
Cover Prob: FSU 57.80%
O/U Prob: Under 66.83%
Game Score: 43.39
Washington State 20-26 San Diego State (-2.5) (48.5)
Win Prob: SDSU 63.04%
Cover Prob: SDSU 58.47%
O/U Prob: Under 55.51%
Game Score: 26.38
Georgia Tech 18-43 Pittsburgh (-7.5) (53.5)
Win Prob: Pitt 94.41%
Cover Prob: Pitt 84.41%
O/U Prob: Over 67.45%
Game Score: 34.22
Pitt -7.5 is not a best bet due to QB Mason Heintschel’s injury
Miami-FL (-14.5) 32-18 North Carolina (52.5)
Win Prob: Mia 80.27%
Cover Prob: UNC 52.33%
O/U Prob: Under 56.02%
Game Score: 63.28
Ohio State (-6.5) 36-22 USC (51.5)
Win Prob: OSU 81.09%
Cover Prob: OSU 69.38%
O/U Prob: Over 67.33%
Game Score: 81.55
*Injury to OSU QB Julian Sayin not factored in*
Mississippi State 17-36 Texas (-20.5) (50.5)
Win Prob: Tex 88.54%
Cover Prob: MSU 53.34%
O/U Prob: Over 54.79%
Game Score: 61.41
Missouri (-9.5) 27-17 Arkansas (48.5)
Win Prob: Miz 73.01%
Cover Prob: Miz 50.82%
O/U Prob: Under 60.51%
Game Score: 37.43
Washington 14-39 Nebraska (-7.5) (49.5)
Win Prob: Neb 94.42%
Cover Prob: Neb 84.44%
O/U Prob: Over 57.66%
Game Score: 39.03
Army 32-31 Memphis (-6.5) (59.5)
Win Prob: Army 52.39%
Cover Prob: Army 67.05%
O/U Prob: Over 60.20%
Game Score: 67.01
Texas State 24-40 Boise State (-11.5) (64.5)
Win Prob: Boise 84.38%
Cover Prob: Boise 61.21%
O/U Prob: Under 52.18%
Game Score: 52.68
Northern Illinois 13-39 UNLV (-24.5) (54.5)
Win Prob: UNLV 95.19%
Cover Prob: UNLV 53.63%
O/U Prob: Under 55.95%
Game Score: 1.38
Oregon State (-5.5) 30-23 Fresno State (57.5)
Win Prob: OSU 67.79%
Cover Prob: OSU 55.02%
O/U Prob: Under 61.21%
Game Score: 50.18
Comments