College Football Teams That Will Progress/Regress in 2025

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Every year, college football teams around the country improve or get worse from season to season. Some of these changes are large, like Florida State going from 13-0 in 2023 to 2-10 in 2024, and some are very minor, like Texas A&M finishing 8-4 virtually every year. But predicting which teams will do what before the season even starts is a difficult game, especially in this day and age with the exponential roster turnover from year to year. But we’re going to try and do that today in this article – here are the teams I see most likely to progress and regress in 2025.

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Houston Cougars - Progress

If you’ve been keeping up with my content this offseason, you know I’ve harped on how Houston has all the makings of a team who makes a jump in year two under head coach Willie Fritz. I have the Cougars winning eight games this year after winning just four in Fritz’s first season.

Syracuse Orange - Regress

On the flip side, if you’ve been keeping up with my content this offseason, you know I’m not as high on Syracuse as most this year. The Orange won nine games in head coach Fran Brown’s first season last year, but six of those wins were by one score and all three of their losses were not good.

Oklahoma Sooners - Progress

Oklahoma is another underrated team heading into the 2025 season. Its offseason additions bringing in quarterback John Mateer and his OC at Washington State last year may end up being the best offseason move in the country, and the defense was still good last year despite the 6-7 record.

BYU Cougars - Regress

BYU got very lucky with turnovers last year and its SNAP Rating did not live up to its 11-2 final record. Throw in the loss of QB Jake Retzlaff due to off-the-field issues, and all signs point to a decline for the Cougars this year. But maybe the defense will be good enough to salvage a decent season.

USC Trojans - Progress

This is a do-or-die season for Lincoln Riley, who has not even come close to living up to the hype he had when he first arrived in LA. But on paper, USC should be better than a year ago where they went just 6-6 in the regular season. The Trojans were better than their record a year ago, they kept QB Jayden Maiava, and added a top 20 portal and freshman class.

Tennessee Volunteers - Regress

This may be the most obvious regression on here, and it will be shocking if Tennessee can match what they did in 2024. The Volunteers lost QB Nico Iamaleava to UCLA and replaced him with a downgrade in Joey Aguilar. They also rank 70th and 68th in returning production and transfer class, respectively.

Virginia Tech Hokies - Progress

This is another team I’ve been harping on all offseason about how underrated they are. The Hokies largest margin of defeat in six losses last regular season was by 10 points to eventual ACC champion Clemson, and they had countless injuries. But with a lot of returners, look for head coach Brent Pry’s team to break out in 2025.

SMU Mustangs - Regress

SMU won the offseason about as much as they could have by retaining head coach Rhett Lashlee and QB Kevin Jennings, but they lost about every other important piece from last year’s playoff team. Along with that, the schedule is much stronger than last year, so it’ll be almost impossible for the Mustangs to reach 11 wins again.

Auburn Tigers - Progress

As I mentioned in one of my previous articles, Auburn may have had the worst turnover luck in the country last year, and lost a few close games because of it. With the talent coming in this season, the Tigers may have been talked about as a playoff contender if they finished last year with seven or eight wins like they probably should have.

Colorado Buffaloes - Regress

Deion Sanders’ team is likely in for some major regression in 2025. Losing two top 10 players in the country in Shadeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are going to be detrimental to this team. Those two were so good that it covered up a lot of flaws in that Colorado team last year.

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